One year after their nuclear explosions, India and Pakistan are busy fighting the most dangerous low-intensity war since 1990. After losing a few high altitude skirmishes against the Pakistan Army, India has targeted the Kargil sector on LOC in Kashmir with troops and aircraft — against what is says is an unprecedented influx of infiltrators from Pakistan. In this process, two Indian MiG aircraft have been downed by Pakistan well within its territory, while two helicopters have been shot down by the mujahideen.
This action has been seen the world over as a big setback for India. Cut to the quick, and faced with elections in September, the BJP caretaker government has accused Pakistan of “stabbing India in the back”. In fact, even as Islamabad has offered bilateral talks at the foreign-minister level, New Delhi has upped the ante by inducting Mirage 2000 warplanes into the border fray, reinforced troops in the sector, and launched a massive artillery barrage in the Bhimber and Neelam Valleys inside the Pakistani-controlled area, killing innocent citizens.
This is yet another folly on India’s part. In 1984, New Delhi suddenly decided to climb atop Siachen and has remained stuck there, spending several crores a day on the operation. Now, after its new adventure, the supply line on this precarious perch has been virtually cut off, thereby plunging the warlike right-wing government in India into deep trouble.
India’s “peace-loving” leaders have steadily escalated. Under I K Gujral’s United Front dispensation, even as the government fraternised with Islamabad, the military was given the go-ahead to deploy the Pakistan-specific Prithvi missile. This forced Pakistan to test its own Ghauri. Then, under the “statesman” prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, India shocked the world with its second nuclear test at Pokhran, followed by acute provocations aimed at forcing Pakistan to follow suit. This put paid to Pakistan’s policy of restraint and proved how wrong the world had been in depending on India’s democracy to act with wisdom.
Mr Vajpayee has proved more two-faced than his predecessor. He gave the go-ahead for further Agni missile tests, forcing an equal response from Pakistan. India’s claim that it is testing nuclear devices and preparing a delivery system as a deterrence against China just doesn’t wash. To deliver a nuclear device into China’s heartland, India has to test both warheads and missiles several times more before it can achieve miniaturisation of its payload. Yet it has already announced a moratorium on further testing which it will not be able to violate in the face of world opinion.
Kashmir is far more politicised in India than the world releases. The BJP government has collapsed despite its “popular” nuclear policy but it still clings to old political tricks to garner votes. It is also hostage to an aggressive policy in Kashmir. If it lets up, the Congress will pillory it by adopting a more hawkish stance. India’s politicians have therefore hog-tied themselves by their devotion to this great vote-getting gimmick. They have made de-escalation more difficult all round. The Congress government committed the “popular” folly of sending troops to Siachen. But no later government has dared to withdraw troops from it. This folly was terminally confirmed when Siachen ceased to be a counter in negotiations with Pakistan after 1990.
Mr Vapayee’s latest botch-up in Kashmir also reveals the low level of competence demonstrated by the Indian military leadership after a decade of involvement in Kashmir. Using supersonic aircraft against guerrilla fighters active at such high altitudes is not a professional tactic but a political one. It has predictably backfired and succeeded instead in convincing Pakistan that the MiGs could easily target objectives across the LOC.
Some people say that Pakistan has raised the stakes by “infiltrating” a large, cohesive, group of mujahideen into a potentially sensitive area. There is no evidence of this. At any rate, one must remember that for the past year and more, Indian forces have shelled and even machine-gunned exposed civilians on the Pakistani side of the LOC, particularly the Neelam valley. Therefore, if the Pakistanis have chosen to retaliate in a way that will register with the Indians, it should come as no surprise.
The BJP is now challenged with an electoral reversal in September. Instead of covering itself with glory, it is now seen by the Indian masses as a party whose policy of derring-do is a hoax. It is this that has brought India and Pakistan to the threshold of a new escalation. The Indian media, writing under the influence of the Ministry of External Affairs, must realise that war with Pakistan will solve nothing. Indeed, most experts who dismiss the prospect of nuclear war in South Asia, should understand that escalation will bring Pakistan to the nuclear precipice.
Both countries must swiftly begin bilateral talks aimed at a peaceful resolution of issues. Vote-winning strategies must exclude the gimmickry of military adventures. Both the BJP and the PML should know that neither would survive politically if the low-intensity-conflict escalates into a full-fledged war. The crisis in South Asia is economic and fighting wars while the masses sink steadily below the poverty line is a preoccupation of fools.