It is worth asking today whether or not there are any similarities between two periods — 1977, the end of Mr Z A Bhutto and 1989, the beginning of Ms Benazir Bhutto — and what, if any, are the implications for the future of the PPP, democracy and Pakistan.
In 1977, when he thought he was set to rule another twenty years, Mr Z A Bhutto faced the onslaught of a combined opposition which consciously instigated an army coup to plunge the country into martial law. He failed to see the writing on the wall and paid for it tragically.
Ms Benazir Bhutto’s PPP government in Islamabad is not yet one year old, but the opposition to it is acquiring monstrous dimensions by the day. This opposition is led by ‘like-minded friends’ of the late dictator and sworn enemy of the Bhuttos, Gen Zia ul Haq. However, it now also includes all the former MRD friends of the PPP, and some more. They will go to any lengths, including the imposition of martial law, to get rid of her.
In 1989, Ms Bhutto’s position compares very unfavourably with that of her father in 1977. She does not have Punjab and Baluchistan, she is dependent on a tottering coalition in the NWFP and an unreliable majority in the National Assembly which includes the MQM and FATA. The Armed Forces are highly politicised, the bureaucracy cannot be trusted, the press is free and the opposition makes full use of it. Her team is politically immature, often trigger-happy, and certainly not beyond personal reproach. She contends with a powerful President with whom there is no love lost and who is constitutionally an alternative source of legitimacy. She also has to demur to the views of senior army officers who were forced by circumstances to acquiesce in the elections last year, and amongst whom there are many who look upon the PPP with suspicion, even hostility. On the other side, the opposition is opposing her to protect enormous political and economic interests acquired during the last ten years. Finally, the unending turmoil in Sindh is eroding her home base and casting doubts on her ability to govern efficiently.
Given all this, it is in the interests of the PPP to make friends and influence people and institutions in the right direction, rather than to antagonize them. Because the PPP has the most to lose under the circumstances, it is all the more necessary for it to be flexible in the short run. Its record, however, on this score is not terribly good. The “dismissal” of the Baluchistan government was a bad omen of things to come. The ‘Get Nawaz’ operation was totally misplaced. The Salman Rushdie affair was grossly mismanaged. These incidents early on soured the game and raised the stakes. The Peoples Works Programme is seen as an attempt to erode the opposition’s support base. Finally, with the arrest of Gen (retd) Fazle Haq and similar allegations against Nawaz Sharif, relations between the PPP and the opposition have touched rock-bottom.
The next few weeks are going to be tricky. The opposition has determined to go for the big kill, and swiftly. The Punjab and Baluchistan CMs have already asked the President to ‘intervene’, and so has the MQM. We know all too well the meaning of such ominous ‘interventions’. The game-plan is to overthrow the NWFP government and then to move a vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly. The MQM and FATA members simply require a nod from the President when the time is ripe.
Even if the opposition fails in its objectives now, it is not going to give up easily. The propaganda against the PPP is going to get shrill with each passing day. Three new exclusively anti-PPP papers from Lahore -—Sayasi Log, Facts International and The Observer -—will carry the battle into the media for the hearts and minds of the people. Fresh efforts will be made to intensify the contradictions between the PPP on the one hand and on the other, the President, the armed forces, the trader-industrialist classes, and the independent members of parliaments. Even old photographs of Ms Bhutto during her student days may be blown up for good effect. Wait for it.
The Prime Minister needs to do some serious and quick thinking about the mess at home, and forsake, for the time being, all her trips abroad. There is no alternative except to govern by consensus. If she allows things to slide, she will be unceremoniously ousted from power, notwithstanding her many friends abroad. The message is blowing in the wind.