Mr Asif Zardari was back in the jug last Tuesday after an anti-terrorist court in Karachi inexplicably ordered the cancellation of his bail on the eve of his departure for Islamabad. Fortunately, however, the Sindh High Court quickly overturned the lower court’s ruling and set Mr Zardari free. But the whole episode has left a bad taste in the mouth. Worse, it has only served to undermine General Pervez Musharraf’s efforts for a modicum of decency and stability in the country. What’s going on? Who panicked? Who delayed the PIA flight carrying him to Islamabad? Who ordered his arrest? Who ordered the police to rough up the PPP procession at Islamabad airport?
Mr Zardari’s “popularity” is unnerving some people. Despite eight years in prison without a conviction, the broad smile has never faded from his visage. Despite enforced isolation from family and friends, he has not made one bitter or vengeful remark against General Musharraf or his many detractors. Despite being dragged to servile courts across the country, he has hobbled in and out of police vans with stoical resignation, dripping sarcasm and irony at the state of “justice” in the country but never once abusing or lashing out at the judges in court. Hundreds of supporters, high and low, swamped Bilawal House for days after he was released from prison. Thousands welcomed him as his motorcades snaked through rural Sindh. Last week he was getting ready to dance bhangras in the Punjab. Clearly, the Sindh government is responsible for the fiasco in Karachi and the Punjab government is guilty of high handedness at Islamabad airport.
The Sindh chief minister, Ghulam Arbab Rahim, has publicly warned Mr Zardari to be careful about his security lest he be assassinated. Mr Rahim also has the most to lose from any “reconciliation” between General Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto because it would certainly lead to a PPP-dominated government in Sindh. Equally, the Chaudhrys of Punjab cannot possibly warm to “reconciliation” because they would lose their pre-eminence in Islamabad and even possibly Punjab despite the hard work they have done in the last five years to shore up the Musharraf system. This would explain why Chaudhry Shujaat Husain is inching toward the MMA by conceding the latter’s demand for a column on religion on Page One of the machine-readable Pakistani passport.
Therefore Ms Bhutto is right in asserting that Mr Zardari’s harassment is aimed at wrecking the process of reconciliation initiated by General Musharraf and flogged by his team comprising Mushahid Husain, Sheikh Rashid, Kabir Wasti, et al. Indeed, Mr Wasti, a senior VP of the Muslim League, has openly contradicted Chaudhry Shujaat Husain by arguing that the Muslim League has not succumbed to the demands of the MMA on the passport issue.
In all this General Pervez Musharraf has been a silent spectator. Nor has there been any comment from Mushahid Hussain whose bold remarks last month launched the debate about reconciliation in the first place. Is it possible that General Musharraf may conceivably disapprove of what happened last Tuesday in regard to Mr Zardari but doesn’t want to publicly criticize his provincial administrations lest it further sap their confidence and trigger fresh stories about rifts in government that may weaken his own hold over power?
We shall hear from the horse’s mouth soon enough when he addresses the nation. However, some conclusions may be drawn. First, as long as he is army chief and president, General Musharraf’s personal position is unassailable, barring any untoward act of assassination. Second, the MMA is not likely to go so far against General Musharraf as to provoke a dismissal of its governments in the NWFP and Balochistan. Third, the PPP is more likely to cut a soft deal with General Musharraf rather than a hard one with the MMA. Fourth, the international community is concerned about a lack of succession principle in General Musharraf’s system and wants him to institutionalize some liberalization for greater depth and longevity, not least in terms of the war against terror, normalization with India and roll back of political Islam in Pakistan. Fifth, there is an imperative to keep the economy on a high growth platform so that both rising defense expenditures and better poverty alleviation measures can be sustained through the budgets. This would be seriously jeopardized by political instability triggered by domestic or foreign policy debacles flowing from a lack of sufficient political consensus over General Musharraf’s policies. Hence, there is an overwhelming need to reconcile with the mainstream and liberal PPP at the expense of the MMA.
General Musharraf is known for taking swift and bold decisions when ground realities change. This happened at the juncture of 9/11 and he was not found lacking. It is happening again now. So he must close some old chapters and open new ones. This means that he should reassure and strengthen the PML instead of pandering to its fears and complaints. It also means that the liberal and pro-West PPP should be drawn into the loop without “surrendering” to its populist demands and claims. Between fighting friends and foes, it is a tough act to follow.