During the Middle Ages, the Roman Empire was known as the Byzantine Empire. It was centered on its capital of Constantinople, modern day Istanbul. A 19th century British historian, writing about the nature of the empire, called it “a monotonous story of the intrigues of priests, eunuchs and women, of poisons, of conspiracies, of uniform ingratitude”. The phrase “Byzantine” thus came to mean a penchant for intrigue, plots and assassinations, and a chronically unstable political state of affairs.
By such reckoning, Pakistan is a true legatee of Byzantium. Since independence in 1947 it has been struck by dozens of political assassinations. Governments, prime ministers and presidents have come and gone with alarming regularity, their rise and fall premised on some treacherous conspiracy, devious intrigue or secret plot. Not a single civilian government has ever completed more than half its full five year term. The fate of the present one hangs in balance, as usual. One widely read Urdu columnist has written glowingly of his recent two-on-one meeting with the army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, and predicted that, come March, Asif Zardari’s days as president are numbered. So we are condemned to speculate about signals from Zero Point to energize both enemies and friends to heave him out.
Conspiracy Theory # 1: Apparently, the khakis cannot stomach the idea of Mr Zardari ensconced in the presidency as the supreme commander of the armed forces. So they have nudged the MQM, PMLN and PMLQ to float bills for the repeal of the 17th amendment which bestows extraordinary powers on the president. They have also apparently roped in Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani who has started to assert himself – he first sacked his principal secretary because he was a Zardari man and has now chucked out his national security advisor, General (retd) Mahmood Durrani, (another Zardari appointee) upon the urging of the khakis (never mind that the wretched NSA is publicly insisting that he got the green light from the khakis for his controversial statement on Ajmal Qasab and no senior khaki has denied his claim). The PM is also ominously harping about the need for decision making by a “supreme parliament” rather than by individuals. Consequently, the loudest whisper in parliament is about “imminent change” in the fortunes of the ruling coalition and its leaders. A conspiracy within the conspiracy is also said to be hatched by the Americans who are in the process of switching support from Mr Zardari to Mr Sharif because the former has got very unpopular and the latter very popular, a necessary condition for owning up and prosecuting the war on terror, notwithstanding the track record of the Americans who are known to back unpopular forces and regimes everywhere in pursuit of their imperialist goals.
Conspiracy Theory # 2: Mr Zardari is trying to beat the clock by allying with the PMLQ against the PMLN before the Senate elections in March so that he can divide the gathering grand alliance against him, seize the Punjab government, and thereby deflect the parliamentary threat to his presidency. Watch out for the Supreme Court’s decision disqualifying the Sharif brothers from sitting in parliament, thereby setting the stage for the ouster of the Sharif government from Lahore. Not-so-secret meetings between the Chaudhries of Gujrat and the Punjab Governor, Salmaan Taseer, are a pointer in this direction, no less than counter moves following “secret meetings” between Nawaz Sharif and the Gujrat Chaudries at home and abroad. In this theory, the first stone has been cast against the Sharifs by the Punjab nazims who are banding together to resist the writ of the provincial government. Mr Zardari is also playing footsie, we are reminded, with the Americans to reduce the role and significance of the ISI, the bane of all anti-Pakistan forces, which is why the khakis want him out. Of course, no one has explained why the Americans should want to switch to Nawaz Sharif who has been less than helpful.
There are foreign conspiracies galore too. The big international conspirator is, of course, the US which allegedly wants to undo Pakistan because it is an Islamic nuclear power. But this is a sure-shot recipe for the same weapons falling into the wrong Pakistani hands! Then there’s oil and gas in Balochistan which the Americans covet. But we have either always had it – in which case, why didn’t the US seize Balochistan earlier instead of being the sole power propping up Pakistan until now – or we don’t have it – in which case why should the US be interested in seizing another chunk of tribal territory when it has its hands full with Iraq and Afghanistan already?
The big regional conspirator is, of course, India. It wants to undo Pakistan in its quest for Akhund Bharat. But no one can explain why India, which has 280 million troublesome Muslims and Dalits in its midst, would want to add another 160 Muslim terrorist Pakistanis to its bag of troubles.
Needless to say, if any or all of these conspiracies succeed, there will be great political instability, which will undermine the economy of Pakistan. That would amount to the greatest political conspiracy of all against the people of Pakistan. Welcome to the new Byzantium!