India is threatening to wage war against Pakistan for “aiding and abetting terrorism” in Kashmir, territory held by India but hotly disputed by Pakistan since the independence of both nations in 1947. India’s view is that if America can attack Afghanistan for hosting Al-Qaeda terrorists, why can’t India follow suit against Pakistan for sustaining Islamic groups bent on “terrorist” violence in Kashmir?
But this argument is a non-starter. The fact is that the United States had obtained three UN Security Council resolutions sanctioning the Taliban regime in Afghanistan before September 11 and two more later before it took the decision to attack Kabul. Washington also had full NATO support. In India’s case, no such legal backing or world support is available. In fact, George W. Bush and Tony Blair, key players in the anti-Afghan coalition, have firmly advised against such an adventure. Nor can the fighting in Kashmir be classified in black and white terms, as in Afghanistan’s case. The Taliban regime was not recognized by the United Nations. In the case of Kashmir, however, there are several UN Security Council resolutions going back to 1948 urging India to hold a plebiscite to determine whether the Kashmiris want to stay with it or join Pakistan, resolutions which India has blithely spurned. That is why Pakistanis insist that the jihadis in Kashmir are not terrorists but freedom fighters seeking Kashmir’s liberation from India.
India’s attempt to ratchet up its military might to put pressure on General Pervez Musharraf to stamp out pro-Kashmir groups based in Pakistan could also create problems all round.
First, no Pakistani ruler could survive the backlash from the public and the military if he were perceived to have “betrayed” the cause of Kashmir by bending before India. So beyond a point the more India relies on military muscle to “persuade” Pakistan to rein in the jehadis, the greater the chances that such tactics might backfire by provoking Pakistan to lash out in anger. That is why when General Musharraf decided to swing behind the allies against the Taliban he was careful to create the domestic perception that he did so because he thought it was in Pakistan’s best interests rather than because America had put a gun to his head.
Second, General Musharraf has already risked much by alienating powerful religious forces in Pakistan after aligning with the West over Afghanistan. His personal security has had to be increased after certain domestic forces have begun to target him as their enemy No. 1. Thus Indian actions might destabilize him and therefore Pakistan just when the West needs a reliable partner.
Third, by ferrying half a million men under arms to the Pakistani border, India has forced Pakistan to thin its 200,000 strong paramilitary force plugging the Afghan border. This means that Qaeda terrorists still holed up in the Tora Bora mountains will find it easier to sneak into Pakistan and hide until the American storm blows over. Surely, that is not what Washington wants.
Fourth, General Musharraf is not like Mullah Omar, the head of the Taliban regime, who refused to act against the terrorists. On the contrary, he has reiterated his resolve to root out religious extremism in Pakistan. A month ago he froze the assets of several terrorist groups and arrested the top five leaders of the anti-America and pro-Kashmir jihadi parties in the country. Now he has detained leaders of the two militant organisations named by India and the United States as responsible for the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament on Dec. 13, even though neither country has provided evidence of its claims. And General Musharraf has revamped the external operations of the Interservices Intelligence directorate, which is credited with backing the “terrorism” in Kashmir, so that its policies are in line with those of the government of Pakistan. What more could New Delhi or Washington have asked for and got immediately?
Finally, India should remember that Pakistan is not as defenseless as Afghanistan was against America, nor as helpless as the Palestinians against Israel. The Pakistani army has given as good as it has ever got from India during times of military conflict. And Pakistan is a nuclear power that will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons should India threaten to overrun it.
Under the circumstances, even an accidental or limited war could get out of hand, with dangerous consequences for the entire region.
General Musharraf and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee of India are scheduled to attend the SAARC meeting in Nepal this Thursday. India should stop thundering about war and use the occasion to start talking peace with Pakistan.
India’s political aims in Kashmir may be better served by patiently strengthening General Musharraf’s hand in his fight against all forms of religious extremism than by foolishly pushing him to the wall. Nuclear weapons apart, Muslim Pakistan’s last line of defense against Hindu-majority India is an Islamic jihad on a national scale. That is exactly what the fundamentalist forces in Pakistan want to exploit, not just against liberal democratic elements within Pakistan but against infidel India and the hated West as well.