Is General Pervez Musharraf pleased with the way his “boys” have managed to kickstart the new political system? We don’t know. But we imagine he must have misgivings at the very least, partly because of who’s in and who’s out, and partly because his dispensation lacks a moral underpinning. Unfortunately, too, General Musharraf cannot possibly be comforted by the fact that he has lost much personal goodwill since his disastrous referendum was followed by the most blatant micro and macro manipulation in Pakistan’s recent political and legal history.
The MQM is probably indespite its latest threats and the PPP is still outdespite its wishful thinking, even though the exiled leader of the former is charged with terrorism and murder while the exiled leader of the latter is only alleged to be corrupt. But the price that may have to be paid for the votes of the MQM in Islamabad could be prohibitively high. Never mind that the army’s intelligence agencies will have to bid farewell to the Haqiqi in Karachi (it was used by them to crack down on the MQM in 1992 and assiduously nourished since then); the real worry is that an opportunist alliance with the MQM at the expense of the PPP might degenerate into the same sort of unholy nexus that brought the city of Karachi and the province of Sindh to their knees from 1990 to 1992 and spawned violent terrorism, repression and instability until 1995.
The PPP is out, not just in Islamabad but also probably in Sindh, even though it was able to obtain more votes than any other party not just in the country but also in the province. This seems politically “un-natural” because General Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto share the same forward-looking, modern, internationalist agendas. It is even more intriguing when you consider the perception that the gulf of morality and righteousness that apparently separated them personally has evaporated in recent times, with the one looking worse and the other looking better than before. This is partly the fault of General Musharraf who seems to have developed some sort of unwarranted personal “fixation” against Ms Bhutto; and partly the fault of Ms Bhutto who may have coveted too much too soon. This relationship is hurting the PPP by forcing defections from its ranks, which is not a healthy political development. But it is also shoving General Musharraf into the arms of potentially dysfunctional allies.
The MMA, however, is both in and out. It is inwhere it matters to it – in the NWFP and Balochistan. In both provinces, it will have full political freedom to advance its holy agendas and undermine Pakistan’s international commitments. And it is outin Islamabad, where it will exploit its parliamentary platform to thunder against the “betrayal” and “treachery” of General Musharraf’s federal government and embarrass it domestically. Indeed, if the MMA can obtain the slot of the leader of the opposition in parliament, there are no prizes for guessing how it will use this privilege to gridlock the National Security Council so beloved of General Musharraf. More portentously from General Musharraf’s point of view, the MMA is determined to erode the sanctity of the two pillars on which his political survival depends: the office of the COAS and the LFO. Should General Musharraf be compelled to take off his uniform before the rules of the new game have been consolidated and institutionalised, or should he dilute the LFO before his political alliances have naturally evolved and matured, he would be a sitting duck before such motivated opponents. The irony is that just as General Musharraf seems to have taken a personalaversion to Benazir Bhutto rather than to the PPP, the leaders of the MMA have concluded that he personallyand not the army institutionally is unacceptable in their scheme of things.
The larger international environment in which General Musharraf’s domestic political agenda is rather precariously placed cannot be ignored for too long either. The coming war between America and Iraq is bound to stir deep and widespread rage in this country. But General Musharraf’s Pakistan depends on the economic and political support of the US while Pakistanis generally view Iraq as bearing the brunt of America’s hostility to Islam. If the MMA is able or enabled to exploit this sentiment, General Musharraf would be the big loser. The more the MMA rails against him and tries to destabilise him, the more the international community will question his political dispensation and alliances and lose confidence in his ability to run Pakistan effectively. This international perception would have repercussions far beyond the immediate, and highly dangerous allegations like transfer of nuclear know-how or technology to North Korea, or fears of Pakistan’s nuclear programme falling into the “wrong hands”, could acquire menacing proportions.
General Pervez Musharraf is a good man who started off well with much goodwill. Then he became infatuated with the dang fangled notions of the good man who conjured up a new political system for him. The advice of another good man plunged him into the referendum. A third good man has now shoved him into the lap of the hardworking Jats of the Punjab for political salvation. Need we say more?