Will General (retd) Pervez Musharraf swing from the gallows for “conspiring to, or facilitating, the murder of Benazir Bhutto” five years ago? No, he won’t.
Last week an anti-terrorist court (ATC) indicted General (retd) Musharraf and four others of conspiracy to murder Ms Bhutto. The case was lodged over five years ago. But it took the ATC three years to indict the accused. Since then, only 18 out of 50 proposed prosecution witnesses have recorded their statements. However, this too was rendered meaningless because Gen Musharraf was absent. So now the witnesses will start parading afresh, followed by lengthy cross-examination and time wasting techniques by each of the counsels of the accused. At this rate, it will take another five years to finish the process of completing the first trial in the ATC and several more in defending the judgment in the High Court and then in the Supreme Court. We may recall that, given due process and the exigencies of politics, the corruption cases against Asif Zardari have been pending for 16 years through three regimes from 1997-2013, without an end in sight. Under the circumstances, who knows who will be in power and what the country and its politics will look like in a decade from now.
The question of evidence is, of course, critical. Apparently, much of it is circumstantial. Many of the key witnesses may back out, disappear or contradict one another under pressure from the powerful military that has already given us a taste of its medicine – one fearless prosecutor has been mysteriously killed, one petitioner has hurriedly withdrawn and fled the country, and others have resiled from giving evidence. Indeed, one of the prime witnesses, lobbyist and Bhutto confidante Marc Siegel, may not even consent to give evidence in the belief that it is a lost cause and his physical presence in Pakistan could be life-threatening. The military has made it clear it will protect its ex-chief come hell or high water.
The attitude of the judiciary, government and opposition towards the military is also illustrative. If the judiciary’s handling of the ISI case of rigging the 1990 elections is any indication – it dusted it off the shelf with great expectations, threatened to bring the ISI down with a bang but ended the case in a whimper – and if its huffing and puffing in the case of the “disappeared” persons in Balochistan – it failed to hammer any nail in any coffin – is indicative of its approach, then we may safely expect it to steer a wide berth of any radical decision against Gen Musharraf. Certainly, a change of guard in the SC by the end of 2013 will signal a significant retreat of the higher courts from the overly populist and interventionist policies of today.
The Sharif government’s policies vis a vis the military in general and Gen Musharraf in particular can also be fairly predicted. In theory, Mr Sharif wants to bring the military to heel. In practice, however, he realizes this is easier said than done. He has his hands full dealing with the failing economy and law and order and knows that any provocation to the military would lead to a massive destabilization of polity that he can ill afford. Indeed, his helplessness can be gauged from the fate of his radical “peace with India” initiative that has foundered on the LoC even before the ink on his dialogue proposals is dry. Much the same can be argued about his lack of passion on the Musharraf front despite his personal travails. This is aimed at remaining on the safe side of the military while heeding the advice of his life-saving Saudi benefactors. We may recall that the Saudis intervened with Gen Musharraf to permit Mr Sharif to go into exile in the Kingdom and are now asking for the same quid pro quo for General Musharraf.
The PPP opposition, meanwhile, is assuming a studied silence. Mr Zardari certainly ranted about bringing “the killers of Shaheed Mohtrama Benazir Bhutto” to book but shied away from pursuing General Musharraf with any enthusiasm because he also feared antagonizing the military. Out of power, Mr Zardari is hoping that Mr Sharif trips up with the military and paves the way for the rehabilitation of the PPP. As for the MQM, JUI and PTI, the less said the better. They are all-weather friends and allies of the military and no one is going to shout and scream for General Musharraf’s head.
“It may well be that Bhutto’s assassination will be another unsolved case in the long history of impunity in Pakistan, and that the controversy surrounding her assassination will endure as much as her memory.” This is an apt conclusion to a forthcoming book by Heraldo Munez, the UN official who formally investigated Bhutto’s murder. As for General Musharraf, he is fated to live a miserable life in exile.