The PPP thinks that conspiracies are afoot to drag President Asif Zardari out of the Presidency. Apparently, the purpose of this exercise is to strengthen the hand of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, drive a wedge between him and Mr Zardari, divide the Peoples Party, weaken it and then hound it out of office.
Last week, the PPP’s information minister, Qamar Zaman Kaira, population welfare minister Firdaus Awan and Sindh chief minister Qaim Ali Shah, all publicly thundered about a “Minus-One plot” being hatched by “anti-democratic” “establishment” forces to achieve this objective. Some old and new facts suggest cause for disquiet in Islamabad.
First, President Zardari lost the support of the mainstream media last year when he backtracked on his public pledge to restore Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry as chief justice of Pakistan. So the media backed Nawaz Sharif’s Long March to the hilt. More ominously, after a dramatic midnight announcement by the government conceding the restoration of the judges, the media actually saluted Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Kayani and DG-ISI Shuja Pasha for “playing a great role” in forcing President Zardari to backtrack and resolve the conflict. The same media has now launched a full throated campaign alleging high corruption and unmitigated cronyism in the PPP government. The PM has responded by sacking the chairman of the Pakistan Steel Mills, a prime media target.
Second, it is commonly believed that General Kayani isn’t too happy with President Zardari. Several issues cloud the relationship. The army didn’t want Mr Zardari to be President because he would then become “supreme commander of the armed forces”. Gen Kayani also wasn’t amused last year when the government announced it was dispatching the DG-ISI to Delhi shortly after the Mumbai incident to diffuse the situation. In the event, he effectively countered otherwise. The government then tried to put the ISI’s internal wing under the interior ministry. But Gen Kayani said “nothing doing”. President Zardari’s assertion on Indian TV that Pakistan was ready to disavow first strike nuclear rights alarmed the establishment. So he was forced to eat his words. Mr Zardari is also seen in GHQ as being “soft” on the Americans in pursuance of their Af-Pak interests. The military leadership insists on a calibrated and autonomous approach in the matter. Gen Kayani’s intervention in the judges’ affair on the side of Prime Minister Gilani finally persuaded PPP stalwarts that Mr Gilani’s new found confidence was owed to discreet backing by General Kayani.
Third, Mr Nawaz Sharif’s strategy of weakening and isolating Mr Zardari and discrediting the PPP government is bearing fruit. He is the most popular politician in the country. The media is gunning for Mr Zardari. Gen Kayani is keeping a poker face but his minions aren’t. And the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) is flexing his new found muscle. The Supreme Court (SC) has enabled Mr Sharif to contest elections and sit in parliament. It has restored Mr Sharif’s PMLN government in Punjab. It has sacked all the judges appointed by Mr Zardari. It has even questioned budgetary provisions passed by parliament. It is on the verge of outlawing the National Reconciliation Ordinance. Now it is trying to pack its benches without reference to the President as ordained in the constitution. This could gridlock the system.
The Lahore High Court Chief Justice wants 35 judges elevated or appointed to the High Court. He has sent the list to the Punjab Governor, Salmaan Taseer, a Presidential appointee and constitutional consultee on such matters, who will send his views to the President who will make the final appointments. But the Chief Minister of the Punjab, Shahbaz Sharif, has taken issue, advising Mr Taseer to consult with the CM before advising the President. Significantly, Mr Sharif has also broken the rules of business and established practice by copying his correspondence with the Governor to the Chief Justice. He has also used provocative language. But the Governor has obtained the backing of the federal law ministry that the CM does not have to be consulted in the matter. The issue could explode if the CM petitions the courts for a judgment. Or if the President rejects some of the nominees of the Lahore Chief Justice and the matter is raised as a constitutional petition before the CJP. This would be a recipe for potential constitutional gridlock. With the opposition and media backing the judiciary, pressure would likely build up on Gen Kayani to intervene as he did during the Long March.
Formula “Minus One” (PPP minus Zardari) should not be discounted. It stops short of regime change but will still destabilise the country. Much will depend on how Mr Zardari plays his cards. He can pre-empt it by sitting down with Mr Nawaz Sharif and carrying out a constitutional amendment that enforces the Charter of Democracy (COD) signed by Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif in 2006. The COD envisaged a ceremonial president, no bar on anyone becoming prime minister any number of times, and a parliamentary vetting of all judicial appointments to ensure a neutral and independent judiciary. Or Mr Zardari can continue to hang on to his presidential powers until everyone gangs up against him and he is isolated, weakened and then defeated. Forewarned is forearmed.