Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan is recently reported to have said that “in the current situation, with divisions and polarisation, there is no possibility of the emergence of a third political force”. Nawabzada Sahab’s argument is that an in-house change is not on the cards because “the military leadership wants to maintain the status quo and the internal and external situation demands that there should be no change in the existing political set-up.” Before prime minister Benazir Bhutto reaches for the phone and offers Nawabzada Sahab the deputy prime ministership of Pakistan for uttering such reassuring words, she might pause and consider the darkening clouds on the horizon.
1. Mr Altaf Hussain has proved, yet again, that he can cripple Karachi in the blinking of an eye. The MQM (A) is armed with sophisticated weapons, including rocket launchers, and is threatening to close down the city after Moharram. Whatever her own perceptions, the fact is that Ms Bhutto and the PPP are intensely disliked by Karachi-ites who are dying to get rid of her government. That’s why the MQM won’t talk turkey with the PPP.
2. The Milli Yekjehti Council (MYC) of religious parties has demonstrated that it can enforce a nation-wide strike against the government. The fundamentalists are convinced that Ms Bhutto is an agent of Western powers who are inimical to Islam. They will seize the first opportunity to remove her from office. That’s why they’re not interested in negotiating with Islamabad.
3. Mian Nawaz Sharif is at the end of his tether. There are over a hundred cases against his family and more are on the way. His family members are either in hiding in London or in prison. His financial empire is in ruins. Because of his popularity in the urban areas of Pakistan, he can raise large crowds and call successful nation-wide strikes. He has nothing left to lose, so he will sup with the devil, if he has to, in order to boot Bhutto out. The possibility of rapprochement is zero.
4. Businessmen and traders are hopping mad with Ms Bhutto. The Privatisation Commission and the Central Board of Revenue are digging into the record and leading figures are either on the government’s Exit-Control List or in the process of being charged with fraud or tax evasion. The economy is in a slump. New taxes are about to be imposed. Businessmen have supported every strike against Ms Bhutto and they will do so again and again until they have seen the back of her. Their negotiations with Islamabad are aimed at extracting concessions and do not reflect any change of heart on their part.
5. The tribals of the NWFP are threatening to take up arms against Islamabad. The ban on Afghan Transit Trade has hurt them badly. Members of parliament from FATA and PATA are under pressure from their constituents to abandon Ms Bhutto and seek a third option. Talks have broken down.
6. The chief minister of Balochistan is in a nasty mood. Members of the Balochistan parliament and government are warning of mass resignations if Islamabad doesn’t raise their province’s share of royalties from Sui gas. No resolution is in sight.
7. Messrs Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi, Balkh Sher Mazari and Zafrullah Jamali have never hidden their intense aversion to Ms Bhutto’s government. They will lend their weight to any serious effort to dislodge her from power.
8. The people of urban Pakistan are thoroughly disillusioned and unhappy with Ms Bhutto. Inflation has eaten into their pockets, they are out of jobs and they can expect no respite from the next budget. Sullen and alienated, they may clutch at the first opportunity to change the present political dispensation.
The mid-June budget could spell disaster for Ms Bhutto if it sparks protests against the government. In such a situation, all the elements hostile to Ms Bhutto will bond together and exert themselves to repeat the agitation movement of 1977. But this time, the movement is likely to go beyond street demonstrations, strikes and protest meetings. Thanks to the Afghan jihad which flushed Pakistan with sophisticated weapons, armed militants and militias are likely to seek a head-on clash with the organs of the state. In that event, Nawabzada Nasrullah’s “status quo” supporters in the armed forces will be forced to re-evaluate their assumptions.
Such a re-think might conceivably involve a nod for an in-house change in which Mr Nawaz Sharif makes way for a “consensus” candidate. If a “signal” should materialise under duress, or be contrived under pressure, events will move with speed and Ms Bhutto’s coalition may disintegrate. In the absence of a countervailing heavyweight like Chaudhry Altaf Hussain in the Punjab, the PM will be poorly served by Mr Manzoor Wattoo, whose role could become pivotal.
A single spark, like a tough budget, can light a prairie fire. Ms Bhutto should worry about an unstable “status quo”. Instead of fire-fighting tactics, which is what she has done during much of her time, she should devise a reliable strategy to douse discontent before it lays a blanket siege of Islamabad.