Finally, Pakistan’s parliament has echoed with resolve to eliminate the Taliban-Al Qaeda network that has laid the state low. But we shouldn’t forget that this is the same parliament which last month thundered with support for an opportunist “peace deal” with the Taliban. Apparently, the PPP, PMLN, PLMQ, ANP and MQM now fully support the military action launched last week in Swat and adjoining areas. More significantly, stalwarts from all of them warned that if the military operation was halted before it reached its logical end, it could prove ‘disastrous’. Equally, the parliamentarians demanded the elimination of ‘sleeper cells’ in other parts of the country, a reference to the former jihadi and current sectarian organizations in Punjab and Sindh provinces which have become an integral part of the terrorist network.
This is belated music to our ears. But misgivings remain. The order of decision-making suggests a continuing degree of opportunism instead of principle. The military action started first. Then, two days later, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani “addressed the nation” with his newfound “enough is enough” philosophy, carefully repeating the operative parts of his Urdu speech in English for the benefit of the Americans. A week later, as an afterthought, parliament was called into session after the big political leaders were “requested” to come to Islamabad by Mr Gilani personally. Surely, in all seriousness, the order of procedure should have been the other way – a debate in parliament, followed by a prime ministerial intervention and then military action in pursuit of parliamentary directions. Cynics say President Asif Zardari found the going rough in Washington last week and sent an SOS to Mr Gilani and General Ashfaq Kayani to “do something” to assuage the angry Americans in order to get an economic and military package to “save Pakistan”. This reminds us of the times when General Pervez Musharraf used to offer the crumbs of a half-hearted military operation or the head of some second ranking Al-Qaeda leader to the Americans on the eve of his meeting with US President George Bush in Washington.
Clearly, the sort of national consensus needed to end the scourge of the Taliban and embrace the US-Af-Pak strategy for the region is still lacking. The PMLN chief, Nawaz Sharif, and the JUI chief, Maulana Fazal ur Rehman, still insist that they haven’t been taken into confidence by the Zardari regime. Indeed, both are flogging the idea of an All Parties Conference (APC) even though parliament, which is the most effective all–parties forum of all, has already rung with support for the military action in Swat. To add to the confusion, the Jamaat-i-Islami and Tehreek-i-Insaf are openly touting a pro-Taliban line because of their virulently anti-American stance. In other words, the recipe of an APC is set to produce a deadlock instead of the consensus required in the current situation. That is why Prime Minister Gilani’s readiness to embrace the idea of the APC sold by the ruling PPP’s main opposition rivals is so intriguing.
The ad hoc nature of decision-making is reflected in the mass exodus of refugees from the war-torn areas in the last week or so and the lack of an adequate organizational and financial framework to deal with them. Mr Gilani announced a federal grant of half a billion rupees when there were 500,000 of them, mostly from Bajaur and FATA following an earlier army operation there. He upped this to Rs 1 billion as their numbers swelled to 1 million, which is about Rs 1000 per refugee, a pitiful amount. Equally pathetic noises have come from the political parties so far – the MQM has “weighed in” with a whopping Rs 1 million! Of course, civil society has scrambled into action, but its efforts are more heroic than anything else, now that the refugee wave is estimated to be about 1.5 million strong. International commitments are equally lumbering and insignificant.
Experts are talking of an urgent S&R – Stabilization and Reconstruction – strategy to deal with the growing problem. This involves a 5-8 year military-cum-civilian plan to uproot the terrorists through sustained politico-military action that also provides an economic and administrative infrastructure to cater to the local population’s rehabilitation and loss of alienation from mainstream Pakistan. This is a proposal that should have been hammered out on the basis of a national consensus last year when the Taliban Tehreek of Pakistan (TTP) was launched by Al-Qaeda. Instead, we are only now beginning to talk about it, much less than agree upon what needs to be done.
Meanwhile, the media is already turning its attention to the dismal plight of the refugees and it is only a matter of time before talk of new peace deals with the Taliban crops up to end the steady stream of refuges pouring out of the war-hit zones without any substantial or quick relief measures in sight. This possibility could become a probability if the Taliban’s squad of suicide bombers strikes back as it has threatened and exacts a heavy toll of security personnel and civilians, including top politicians. The battle for the soul of Pakistan is therefore dovetailing into the battle for the hearts and minds of the refugees trailing out of Swat and pouring into Mardan and other areas close to Peshawar for safety.