Saddled with pressing domestic problems, prime minister Bhutto’s government has paid scant attention to issues relating to Pakistan’s place in the world. The few foreign policy initiatives, such as two trips to the Muslim states and the forthcoming one to Scandinavian countries, have understandably focused on creating a favourable international climate over Kashmir. However, recent developments around Afghanistan offer the government a good opportunity to turn one of Gen Zia’s worst legacies into foreign policy gains.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the two sponsors of the Afghan war, the US and the USSR, are ready for a settlement. Although it is unlikely that an agreement will be announced on August 1 when the US Secretary of State, James Baker, meets Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze in Irkutsk, Siberia, there are indications that the US is willing to deal with Najibullah, thus clearing the last stumbling block in the way of a settlement.
In a recent press briefing in Islamabad, a high-level diplomat admitted that Najibullah had demonstrated staying power and that all parties to the conflict must recognise the “new realities” inside Afghanistan. The recent publicity that Najibullah is enjoying in the American media, including a cover story in Time magazine, seems to be laying the basis for his eventual recognition in the not too distant a future.
At the same time, the US has been putting pressure on the Mujahidin. The US Senate has already reduced annual aid to them from $300 million to $200 million. The international climate is also turning against the Mujahidin as their military ineffectiveness and political disarray becomes apparent, and violence against Western aid agencies becomes uglier.
But the Mujahidin remain the biggest snag in the peace process. Although they have failed to dislodge the Najib govern-ment inspite of unstinting help from Pakistan and the US among other countries, they are implacably opposed to any participation by Najib in future political arrangements. They are also opposed to the current UN sponsored pilot project to repatriate Afghan refugees. In some cases Mujahidin groups such as the Hizb are reported to be actively dissuading, if not preventing, refugees from returning. The Mujahidin claim that conditions inside Afghanistan are not safe enough for the refugees to return. But since repatriation is voluntary, it is up to the refugees to decide what is best for them. In their effort to block the repatriation process the Mujahidin have been joined by the Jammat-i-Islami and, according to a local daily quoting foreign sources, by the ISI.
Resolution of the Afghan crisis, however, is in the deepest interest of the country. In the short run it will relieve the financial and administrative burdens associated with maintaining the refugees and reduce social, political and ethnic tensions which their continued presence poses. In the long run we stand to gain even more.
Settlement of the Afghan issue can lead to closer relations with the Soviet Union at a time when perestroika has opened up new possibilities. The opening up of Soviet Central Asian republics offers the chance to establish a host of economic and cultural ties. Preliminary assessments indicate considerable potential for the expansion of trade and commerce in the region. Friendly relations with our neighbours to the North will also provide a greater sense of security.
Pakistan can play a decisive role in bringing about a political settlement on Afghanistan because of its special relationship with the Mujahidin. They have, after all, been nurtured and supported by us. We can hardly be accused of not having been generous enough, militarily, morally or socially. We are entitled, therefore, to use all the resources at our command to prevent them from scuttling an emerging peace process for narrow, sectarian reasons.
It is equally important to impress upon institutions like the ISI who have been involved with the Mujahidin militarily to accept the changed circumstances and push their allies towards a political settlement. We have little time to lose. The months to come will provide an opportunity to take bold new foreign policy initiatives. If we do not do our homework now, we may be caught napping as the US and the USSR put an end to a war they started 11 years ago.