Gen Mirza Aslam Beg is increasingly being viewed as the proverbial cat among the pigeons. Certainly, his provocative statements on the genesis and consequences of the Gulf war have ruffled many important feathers in Islamabad, not least on account of his timing.
It is, of course, possible that his intention was simply to quell the rising disquiet among his own ranks. But given his habit of periodically prodding official government policies at critical times over the last two years, it is more than probable that his message was intended for a much larger audience. In consequence, the General has cemented behind him the support of a majority of his powerful corps commanders and junior officers as well as cannily putting his hand on the pulse of many Pakistanis’ emotional, and therefore disturbing, opposition to the Prime Minister’s Gulf policy. Because the civilian constituency is justifiably reserved for civilian governments, his remarks have sparked fears of an imminent threat to the civilian order in Islamabad. Which is why President Ishaq, who has judiciously remained tight-lipped for the most part, has been compelled to refer to “the disastrous consequences of military rule” as an oblique warning to the armed forced not to entertain any political ambitions now.
In all likelihood some of Gen Beg’s Gulf perceptions are shared by the two other members of the ruling troika. But, as foreign minister Yakub Khan has so cogently argued, the rules of diplomacy and considerations of national security suggest a public emphasis on other salient issue. International legitimacy and historically fruitful friendships cannot be sacrificed impulsively at the alter of emotions, no matter how powerful, except at great cost of Pakistan.
A review of what the governments of Iran and Turkey are doing to safeguard their particular national interests, notwithstanding countervailing popular sentiments, suggests that, in the crunch, Pakistani statesmen would be properly advised to relinquish any illusions of a regional Muslim “strategic consensus” elaborated by certain quarters in the recent past. Secular Turkey is all set to become NATO’s new linchpin by eventually picking up a few billion dollars worth of NATO arms for free as well as hundreds of millions of dollars of US aid with which to modernise its armed forces and vitalize its economy. Iran’s pragmatism is destined to prove rewarding; surely, in the aftermath of the Gulf war, it is poised to emerge as a dynamic power with mutually productive relations with the Western powers. Pakistan can hardly afford to ignore this dialectic and would be extremely foolish to isolate itself in the international community and think only of banking on its relationship with Iran for a place in the sun, when Iran is looking forward towards the international community rather than backwards to Pakistan for its own good health.
A majority of politicians accept this logic, albeit reluctantly, but does the military, which has been most visibly pricked by the recent cut-off in American aid? The significance of the military’s perception becomes important when the armed forces begin to flex their muscles in the civilian arena.
The All Parties Conference called by Nawabzada Nasrullah has thankfully ended with a whimper. The Jamaat-i-Islami, whose public position these days has echoed with rhetoric not very dissimilar to that in certain military quarters, has wisely pulled back from the brink because it is understandably fearful of weakening Mian Nawaz Sharif’s civilian government. So, too, apparently have saner elements in the Pakistan Peoples Party, although Ms Bhutto seemed earlier to be leaning to one untenable position while her militant ranks were pushing in another equally preposterous direction. The Muslim League, despite internal splits and personal ambitions, has also maintained a credible political stance.
Everything, it hardly needs pointing, should be geared to protecting the civilian order while simultaneously pressurizing the government to formulate an even more credible foreign policy. By and large, President Ishaq and Mian Nawaz Sharif have done well for Pakistan on this count. But we shouldn’t have any illusions about the Prime Minister’s Peace Missions which are in cloud cuckoo land. These are meant merely as a sop to local public sentiment, no more. That is the best he can do while hoping, like most of us, that this terribly unjust and bloody war comes to a halt quickly without gobbling up Iraq.
There is one last thing. The civilian order needs strengthening, too, by the establishment of a loyal and strong opposition. If the PPP’s leadership now lends its shoulder to Mian Sahib’s efforts, the IJI government should cease its persecution of Ms Bhutto. As a reciprocal gesture, the PM should nudge the President to withdraw his reference against her and the cases against Mr Zardari. In the meanwhile, Mian Nawaz Sharif needs to address his defences on the home front more self-consciously. There could be no better time to bury inter-party hostilities and shore up civilian legitimacy than now when the rumblings in Rawalpindi can be heard loud and clear.