Why has Benazir Bhutto launched her long marches at this time? Can she topple Nawaz Sharif through such tactics?
Ms Bhutto’s calculations probably rest on the following assumptions. (1) If Nawaz Sharif consolidates himself, he could again rig the next elections and deny her power for a long, long time. Therefore she should try and get rid of him as soon as possible. (2) Nawaz Sharif is no longer the prima donna of the “establishment” because cracks have appeared within the troika. Relations between the PM and the COAS have soured. The army is annoyed with government meddling in its internal affairs. It also disagrees with Islamabad’s Sindh policy which is seriously flawed. Why shouldn’t she try to exploit these tensions much as Mr Sharif did between her and Gen Aslam Beg when she was in power? (3) President Ishaq is jockeying for another term. If he suspects that Mr Sharif may ditch him next year, he might be susceptible to the idea of dispensing with him quickly. (4) Pakistan’s foreign friends are increasing disenchanted with a “reformer” who has reduced the status of women, advocates public hangings, flogs a harsh, penal version of Islam, discriminates against the minorities and allows the Federal Shariat Court to impinge on financial matters. They might not oppose a suitable change of face and pace in government. (5) Given Ms Bhutto’s bleak future at the hands of an increasingly repressive regime, she must desperately believe that she has nothing to lose and possibly something to gain from whatever “change” takes place in Islamabad. (6) Ms Bhutto thinks she could be a hair’s breadth from being disqualified. Also, under the present circumstances, Mr Asif Zardari is fated to remain in prison. Far better, she must reason, to try and force “change” now on the basis of “political principles” than after she has been disqualified, her husband convicted and her party crushed, when she could be accused of seeking to protect her “personal interests”.
Mr Sharif’s panicky response to her first “long march” must have heartened Ms Bhutto. But can she mobilise the crowds again and again and create further instability?
Ms Bhutto obviously thinks she can. She knows that every angry or frustrated PPP stalwart who unfairly lost the last local bodies and general elections is prepared to fork over hard cash to organise the masses for many more long marches. The PPP “jiyalas”, too, will back her to the hilt. In fact, as the protest movement kicks up dust, she is hoping that other disgruntled smaller groups may jump in for a slice of the action.
She also suspects that Mr Sharif may have boxed himself in. If he chooses to repeat his repressive measures of Nov 18th — block the marchers and arrest everyone in sight — he will expose his authoritarian tendencies and attract worldwide censure, especially if there are some more dead bodies to explain away. If he doesn’t, she can afford to become bolder and more aggressive, thereby hastening the day of reckoning. At any rate, she is hoping that divisions within Mr Sharif’s cabinet will lead to a revolt in the fickle Muslim League which puts pressure on President Ishaq to change its leaders in order to “save the assemblies and the system”.
While Ms Bhutto’s logic may appear reasonably sound, what are the prospects for a change of heart in President Ishaq? The President’s recent comments, which have been badly rendered in the English press, suggest he holds both sides guilty for not playing by the rules of the game. He says each side wants to begin the game by starting with two goals chalked up in its own favour as opposed to nil for the other side. Significantly, he says he is prepared to use his discretionary powers to dissolve the assemblies should the conditions arise. The President disapproves of Ms Bhutto’s tactics. But he is equally unhappy with Mr Sharif’s intransigence. More ominously, he is worried about the fate of democracy lest the confrontation between Mr Sharif and Ms Bhutto continues in its present aggressive manner.
Is the game already out of the control of the two elected players? While they grapple with each other, the ball has visibly slipped out of their grasp and all formal rules have been forsaken. One of the umpires seems to be toying with the idea of having a jolly good dribble while the other is wondering whether it is time to blow the whistle and end this charade of democracy.
This is an unhappy state of affairs. The run-up to December 22, when President Ishaq Khan is scheduled to address a joint session of both houses of parliament, could be nasty. But Ms Bhutto has succeeded in finally putting the cat among the pigeons. If she is still outside the National Assembly on that day instead of being in it, she might not be too worried. But Mr Sharif will certainly rue the day he enforced a hollow victory.