Which party obtained the largest number of votes in Pakistan in the 2002 elections but was denied the slot of the Leader of the House as well as that of the Leader of the Opposition in the House? The PPP. Which party was usurped by General Pervez Musharraf and handed power in the centre and three provinces? The Muslim League. Where are the real leaders of the PPP and the Muslim League? In forced exile. Which party is a core political ally of General Musharraf in Sindh whose leader is in self-exile in London, facing over 50 criminal charges ranging from terrorism to murder etc at home, but who can still compel the Prime Minister of Pakistan to “call” on him? The MQM. Which political group was especially facilitated in the 2002 elections so that it could sport two provincial governments, the slot of the honourable leader of the Opposition in the House and a ringside seat in the National Security Council but has now become a thorn in the side of General Musharraf, Pakistan and the international community? The MMA. Who won the 2002 Presidential “referendum” hands down, whose party has a majority in parliament but who personally doesn’t have the courage to take off his army uniform or step into parliament? President Musharraf. Whose post 9/11 foreign policy is in Pakistan’s national interest, and whose economic performance is good, but whose personal popularity is eroding on account of both success stories? General Musharraf. Whose regime has faced the most virulent form of terrorism, extremism, separatism and sectarianism in the last fifteen years as a blowback effect of its political policies? General Musharraf’s. What is the significance of asking and answering such questions at this time?
The reason is that a recent meeting between Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif in London has set the country on fire with a host of new questions. Will they return to jointly wage a struggle against General Musharraf? Will he remain army chief and president? Is political instability on the cards? Will the next elections be held on time? Will they be free, fair and legitimate? Will General Musharraf enshrine one main-party rule by unpopular decree and rigging, or will he opt for a more pluralistic and legitimate system with a greater national and international consensus underlying it? Will he join hands with liberal elements and jettison the reactionary ones in the country? How will the international community in general and the United States in particular react to forthcoming developments in Pakistan in terms of securing their own vested interests?
Such questions have arisen following a simple meeting between Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif for some important reasons. First, eight years of any government, however good it may be, is sufficient reason for people to want a change of faces if not policies. That is why, in the best democracies of the world, eight years or two full terms of up to ten years is the prescribed constitutional limit of any elected prime minister or president. So ruler fatigue is setting in and General Musharraf’s democratic time is running out. Second, as Mark Anthony said, “the evil that men do lives after them, the good is oft interred with their bones”. Accordingly, General Ayub Khan’s “decade of development” and the BJP’s “India shining” campaign were interred with their metaphorical bones, and General Musharraf’s miraculous “economic turnaround” is likely to be diminished at the altar of a rising cost of living for the vast majority of Pakistanis. The greater irony is that the pro-West political policies of the Musharraf regime responsible for the international largesse fueling the economic turnaround of Pakistan are generating a popular backlash from the “nationalist-middle” and “conservative-religious” classes of the country. Thus the more General Musharraf drums up statistics of economic growth, forex reserves, remittances, etc, the more alienated ordinary folk feel who have been left out of the loop of soaring stock or asset values, or those who must contend with the price of sugar and cement and housing, or those who have benefited in the recent past but are now having a tough time maintaining their new cars and air-conditioners.
Two keen perceptions are also adversely impacting General Musharraf’s support base. First, that the international community and the US have decided not to keep all their eggs in General Musharraf’s basket because he lacks the national consensus to go the whole hog on his foreign policy turnaround; second, that his economic growth strategy is not sustainable on account of the “downside risks” attending a soaring trade deficit, a “casino culture” of overvalued property and stock prices, and a weak banking system that has provided easy money and fueled inflation.
In short, Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif have done nothing remarkable to warrant a potential revival. They have merely successfully exploited the contradictions of General Pervez Musharraf’s system. Therefore, if he doesn’t enlarge the consensus behind it and make it more legitimate and less opportunistic, all the cabinet shuffles in the world will not save him and “the good that he has done…..”.