Not unexpectedly, the Sharif brothers have been knocked out by the Supreme Court, plunging Pakistan into turmoil all over again. The decision is extremely unpopular because it is perceived to be politically biased and provocative. But the painful and ironical truth is that it is lawful and would have been politically tainted but popular if it had been the other way round. Consider.
Both Sharifs were convicted in 2000 by the courts under General Pervez Musharraf’s martial law regime – Nawaz for ordering “plane hijacking” and Shahbaz for ordering “extra-judicial killings”. They struck a political deal with General Musharraf and preferred exile to prison. They also refused to challenge their convictions later because they refused to accept the legitimacy of the post-Musharraf judiciary. Instead, they agitated for and banked on the restoration of the deposed chief justice, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, in the expectation that he would strike down everything unpalatable that happened during the Musharraf years, including the coup that led to their ouster from power and their subsequent convictions. One might therefore say that, given the logic of their situation, they have been hoist by their own petard. If the court had absolved them, that would have been a welcome political judgment giving them a stake in the political system even as they reject its post-Musharraf legal foundation.
The villain of the piece is widely held to be Mr Asif Zardari. One month ago, says Mr Nawaz Sharif, Mr Zardari allegedly offered the brothers a “business deal”: acquittal in the Supreme Court if they abandoned the quest for restoring Mr Chaudhry and agreed to live with Mr Hameed Dogar, the current chief justice, a Zardari favourite. Mr Zardari has refused to restore Mr Chaudhry because of his view that the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), which reprieves Mr Zardari and Co, is illegal. In other words, if Mr Chaudhry were to be reinstalled, he would oust Mr Zardari from the presidency in the blinking of an eye, as well as possibly holding the 2008 general elections under General Musharraf illegal, thereby ensuring Mr Sharif’s return to power via a new legal shortcut. Why should the PPP and Mr Zardari commit political hara-kiri after winning a general election?
There are other facts to consider too. Shortly after winning the elections, Mr Zardari offered a coalition government to Mr Sharif in Islamabad and Punjab instead of rushing to form a PPP-PMLQ alliance. He also offered to discuss a constitutional amendment whereby several objectives could be met: get rid of General Musharraf but enable a safe exit for him in order not to alienate the army and destabilize the system; get rid of the extraordinary powers of the presidency; and restore all the judges, including Mr Chaudhry, while ensuring that they would not upset the apple cart. This was an eminently sensible and practical way to resolve the issues. But Mr Sharif spurned the offer, insisting on the unconditional prior restoration of Mr Chaudhry before any constitutional amendment. This was billed as the “politics of principles”, a contradiction in terms because politics is the art of the possible and not principles. It was also precious, since Mr Sharif’s record as a defender of the judiciary is blemished. Mr Zardari’s grave error lay in first agreeing to restore all the judges and then backtracking on his pledge, for which he has been rightly condemned. But Mr Sharif’s later decision to participate, with the full backing of the Punjab government, in the lawyers’ movement and destabilize the federal government, sealed his fate.
“Rise and revolt for the cause of democracy”, Mr Sharif now exhorts the people of Pakistan. “Zardari is the culprit, not the PPP” he thunders. This distinction, too, is transparently opportunistic. He is hoping to provoke a revolt in the PPP that puts the prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, and the President, Asif Zardari, at odds. So where does Pakistan go from here?
Unless a constitutional compromise is quickly hammered out, we are in for a bout of instability. Punjab has been placed under Governor’s Raj pending a new coalition government by the PPP and PMLQ. Mr Sharif will now band together with other disgruntled elements like the Jamaat-e-Islami and Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf and the lawyers’ movement. This will lead to arrests and detentions. If the protests are prolonged and violent, and some people are killed, there is no knowing where it will all end. Certainly, the last thing both Mr Zardari and Mr Sharif should want is for the khakis to smile in grim satisfaction at the civilians making a spectacle of themselves all over again, thereby giving the army yet another pretext to step in and “save Pakistan”.
There is a way out via a constitutional amendment that gives the lawyers’ movement, the Sharifs, and the ruling PPP, a credible stake in a stable and fair system in which federal and provincial governments can complete their full term under the watchful eye of a less subservient judiciary. Otherwise, Pakistan will enter another period of instability and uncertainty, worrying everyone in the region and beyond at a time when it is already billed as “one of the most dangerous spots in the world”.