It’s been a job well done by Prime Minister Moeen Qureshi. He saw to it that elections took place on time and were universally hailed as free and fair. One would have thought that the politicians would have made some sounds of grateful acknowledgement. Not a bit. Instead, the atmosphere has been soured by a petulant Mian Nawaz Sharif who refuses to sit in opposition. And if we had nursed hopes of sound and sturdy government by one of the two major political parties, the people’s verdict has dashed all such expectations. So it is that the stench of horse-trading once more pollutes the atmosphere. In many ways, it’s back to square one. Not all the good intentions or the floor-crossing laws on the statute books will save us from ourselves. Such are the wiles of democracy.
The elementary arithmetic of the numbers in both the National Assembly and the Punjab Provincial Assembly would give Benazir Bhutto plus allies an edge over Mian Nawaz Sharif. In parliamentary democracy, an advantage of one can make the difference between government and opposition. That is how it works all over the world and if we subscribe to the philosophy of this form of democracy, we must play by the rules of the game. Also, the proper thing would be for all pre-election alliances to hold together in the post-election scenario. The memory of 1988 – 90 is still vivid in our minds when centre-Punjab conflict had driven the country to despair. It can safely be argued that Pakistanis across the board are averse to a repetition of the same. Indeed, it is not difficult to predict a swift breakdown of the system should there be an attempt to return to 1988.
In the past, strong governments bent on authoritarianism have driven weak oppositions to the wall. Our only hope now is that weak governments will be compelled to respect strong oppositions and abide by the rules. By his strong showing in election ’93, Nawaz Sharif has wiped out the stigma of the rigged election of 1990. He should now take a back seat and think positively of the faith reposed in him. There are lessons in the recent past for Mian Nawaz Sharif, should he care to learn them. First, there is no alternative to good governance and economic discipline. Second, he seems to thrive on his antagonism for the PPP. It may now stop working for him. While he may feel that Ms Bhutto is permanently foolish and people around him may reinforce this notion, it may no longer be true. It could be that she has learnt her lesson. Indeed, there are indications that she is somewhat chastened. Mr Sharif must now think of co-existence with the PPP so that he can take his turn in Islamabad. Further, he may not find any takers in the establishment for his toppling philosophy. Not only does the world outside now expect Pakistan to behave maturely, but Mr Sharif’s is a conservative votebank which fights shy of instability.
In the end, nothing can compensate for a degree of personal competence and vision in a leader. Mr Sharif must use this time to relieve many of his anxieties on this score. It was the contradictory centres of influence in his government, in the absence of direction from him, that ran it aground. While on the one hand he made Sartaj Aziz the architect of his liberal economic policy, as recommended by the multi-national agencies, on the other he allowed Maulana Abdus Sattar Niazi and the fundos to ride roughshod over his own secular instincts. While his own training in business pointed towards deregulation, the total lack of regulation in his government spread chaos all round. So it was that when the deficit climbed to over 10% of GDP, the alarms went off and it was suddenly discovered that Mr Sharif had no idea. He must now sit down and reflect on his extraordinary good luck in getting rid of the fundos. He now has a heaven sent opportunity to mould himself according to the real needs of the state and the real instincts of his vote bank. Above all, Mr Sharif need no longer posture.
Ms Bhutto suffers from the opposite flaw. She has vision and she is so firm about it that she brooks no advisors. The usual complaint is that, once in power, she tends towards isolation for there is no one in her party who dares speak up. Ms Bhutto should take a leaf out of Mr Sharif’s book. She would be well-advised to be well-advised. While her last state minister for finance, Ehsanulhaq Piracha, inspired no confidence at all, Mr Sharif’s glib finance whizz, Sartaj Aziz, dressed up bad policy in neat garments and proved an asset to his leader. Then there was Mr Sharif’s flair for making alliances. While we cannot recommend an unprincipled cohabitation of unlimited proportions, it is essential to demonstrate a degree of flexibility. Indeed, there is a great deal Ms Bhutto can learn from Mr Sharif and vice versa. Could it be that we will see Nawaz Sharif living with grace under pressure and courage in opposition as Ms Bhutto did? And will Ms Bhutto develop a knack, like Mr Sharif sometimes did, for delegating authority to the right people?