As predicted, the Swat Peace Accord is rapidly unraveling after the signing of the Nizam-e-Adl regulation (NAR). Sufi Muhammad’s TNSM has not delivered its side of the bargain. The Taliban remain fully armed and are seizing new areas and spaces in the NWFP. Warlord Fazlullah is holding to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan-Al Qaeda’s declared objective of forcibly establishing a Taliban Emirate in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Under the circumstances, with domestic and international concern and pressure mounting, the Zardari government had to order the Pakistan army into Buner and Dir to stop the Taliban in their tracks. Both sides are now claiming violations of the Accord. The army says the Taliban staged a “drama” and “deceived” everybody. The TNSM accuses the government of delaying the appointment of Qazis to man the courts.
A handful of liberals and all of the international community opposed NAR as a potential “surrender” document while the majority-rightists insisted on it as the only way to make peace with “fellow Muslims”. The secular ANP’s position was most interesting. It argued that the NAR was meant for implementation of speedy justice rather than for establishing Shariah. It therefore implied a win-win situation if the document was signed – if peace resulted, followed by the laying down of arms by the Taliban, that should be welcome by all; but if the opposite happened, the TNSM and TTP would be discredited in the eyes of the majority-rightists and trigger popular domestic appeals for military reprisals, as also demanded by the liberals and the international community.
In fact that is exactly what has happened. A wave of public revulsion has followed the TV airing of a video showing the cruel whipping of a young woman by the Taliban in Swat. The Taliban’s self-righteous rejection of democracy, constitution, High Courts, Supreme Court, parliament, elections, political parties, etc, as “un-Islamic” has alienated Pakistanis across the board. Their seizure of Buner and entry into Dir is a clear violation of the Peace Deal. The liberals have been vindicated and the majority-rightists compelled to change their pro-Taliban tune.
The US didn’t want President Zardari and the Pak army to make any peace deal with the Taliban in Pakistan that would have enabled the Taliban to turn and focus their attention toward NATO forces in Afghanistan. But widespread anti-Americanism and pro-Talibanism compelled Mr Zardari to turn to parliament for approving NAR. This way, he reasoned, he could fend off the Americans, and if the Accord turned sour later he would not be to blame singly. His shrewdness has paid off. The Taliban have shown their true colours and the public has approved a military operation to stop them in their tracks. The Pak army has swung into action finally, mopped up the Taliban in Dir and is ready to sweep into Buner and then Swat.
Is this a defining moment for Pakistan which is faced by an unprecedented existential threat from the Taliban? The TNSM and TTP have threatened to unleash a storm in the rest of Pakistan if the military action is not stopped forthwith. This could mean a series of suicide bomb attacks on security personnel or other soft or sectarian targets in Islamabad, Lahore, Southern Punjab, and even in Karachi where there is a significantly militant Pakhtun population, some of which is sympathetic to fellow Pakhtun Taliban. The will of the people of Pakistan, the Pak army, the Zardari government and even the opposition is going to be tested soon.
Mr Nawaz Sharif is the key to what happens next. He is the most popular leader in the country. So far, he has been a vocal defender of the notion that a Muslim army must not open fire on fellow Muslims, however wayward. One reason for this was the anti-Zardari, anti-American mood in the country, which also viewed the Taliban as some sort of heroic fighters against the “Ugly American”. But relentless American pressure on Mr Sharif, who is being built up by them as an alternative to Mr Zardari, plus a recent change in public sentiment against the Taliban, has compelled him to change his stance. He has now advocated an All Parties Conference to cobble a joint strategy against the various ills that befall Pakistan, including the threat from the Taliban.
But this APC is not a good idea. With so many issues on the table, and so many parties in attendance (with one vote each), it is a recipe for squabbles and disagreement rather than a quick consensus against the Taliban. Mr Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz should join the Peoples Party coalition government in Islamabad and the PPP should join the PMLN government in Punjab. That way we will have something akin to a national government to solve the outstanding national issues since independence. Meanwhile, the Americans must pour a lot of money into Pakistan, and quickly, to shore up its economy, to establish Reconstruction Opportunity Zones in the NWFP and FATA for its impoverished population, to equip its army for unconventional war, and cater to the swelling needs of hundreds of thousands of refuges in the trail of military action in various areas.
The battle for the soul of Pakistan is on.