The most oft-repeated question these days is: “When is Benazir’s government going to fall?” It’s as though people have made up their minds that her ouster is inevitable and will brook no “ifs” and “buts”. Few are therefore prepared to concede that she might see through 1995, let alone last her full term. How and why has this perception come about?
Part of the explanation may have to do with a skillful barrage of propaganda against her by the opposition. Hardly a day has gone by without dire forebodings by some PML(N) stalwart or the other. It is an old ploy: if you say something over and over again, some of it is likely to sink into the subconscious regardless of its merits. An element of wishful thinking may also be involved: the country is bitterly divided and millions of PML(N) voters hate the Bhutto family with a vengeance. But there is more to it.
Ms Bhutto was trudging along until Mr Nawaz Sharif launched his “Tehreek i Nijaat”. Some hiccups were inevitable. In due course, however, Mr Sharif’s “movement” ran out of steam. Here was a good opportunity to offer an olive branch to the opposition and provide Mr Sharif an “honourable” exit. But no. Ms Bhutto thought fit to stick the knife in. She arrested “old man Sharif” on the eve of President Farooq Leghari’s address to parliament and breathed new life into the opposition. Chaudhry Shujaat’s arrest made matters worse. Ms Bhutto now appeared vindictive. Her nerves seemed frayed. When she couldn’t make her decisions stick (Mian Sharif had to be released, Ch Shujaat was sprung out on bail and arrested again), her government looked unsure and inept.
Ms Bhutto committed a second blunder when she refused to abide by the rulings of the Senate Chairman and NA Speaker to produce Sheikh Rashid and Chaudhry Shujaat in parliament. Half-hearted efforts by some Bhutto-lapdogs to defend the government’s position proved untenable. Yusuf Raza Gillani became intractable after he was cunningly manipulated by the opposition to defend his “honour”. Conflict within her own camp made the Prime Minister look even more fallible.
In the meanwhile, Karachi has become Ms Bhutto’s Achilles heel. Her policy statements smack of contradictions. She comes across as uncaring. Islamabad seems paralysed. Facts are being concealed. Consider.
(1) Ms Bhutto admits there is a “mini-insurgency” in the city. Then she claims that the “gutter press” is blowing things out of proportion. (2) Mr Abdullah Shah has visited the families of two PPP victims to offer compensation. Yet no government official has even bothered to condole with the families of hundreds of other innocent people mowed down by the terrorists. (3) Ms Bhutto has all the time in the world to travel abroad. Yet she has expended little energy in Karachi to offer solace, seek independent advice or ensure that the Sindh government is more responsive to the desperate plight of the people. (4) Ms Bhutto says that she has pulled the army out of Karachi because the situation is now under control. The facts are otherwise. The army has walked out on her because her recipe for Karachi — let the warring MQM factions slug it out until they are both depleted — is not acceptable to GHQ. Matters are now worse than ever before. (5) She knows that apart from the MQM, sectarian elements and foreign hands continue to bedevil the city. Yet the thrust of her condemnatory statements is aimed exclusively at the MQM for propaganda purposes.
After Nawaz Sharif’s reckless performance, Ms Bhutto’s second term had kicked off on an upbeat note. Many expectations of good governance were attached to her. It was also thought that the compulsions of a coalition would preclude any adventures on her part. Unfortunately, however, since Mr Sherpao’s mischief in the NWFP, it has been downhill all the way.
However much we may blame Messrs Nawaz Sharif and Altaf Hussain for trying to destabilise the government, Ms Bhutto has no cause to be self-righteous or smug. Far from it. Her performance has been bitterly disappointing on many crucial fronts. Accepting the IMF prescription down to the last dot, with the economy in the throes of stagflation, was highly contentious. The imperatives of upholding law and order have been carelessly disregarded. Financial and judicial institutional development has gone awry. And so on. At the end of the day, we are left with the impression of a ruler who doesn’t have any idea of how to govern.
Under normal circumstances, we might have learnt to show more understanding of the problems of government in a third world country like Pakistan and been less uncharitable towards a prime minister like Ms Bhutto who has been elected for the second time in five years. Unfortunately, we cannot afford such luxuries today. Pakistan has entered its most dangerous decade. Nationhood is being torn apart by ethnicity, sectarianism and terrorism. The state is facing erosion. If Benazir Bhutto wishes to retain any raison d’etre, she must demonstrate greater wisdom than she has proffered of late. And quickly.