On th face of it, it would seem that PM Nawaz sharif may be sincere in offering the olive branch to opposition leader Benazir Bhutto. He has decided to withdraw the ordinance which sought to deny the Sindh High Court powers to grant bail to Mr Asif Zardari. Ms Bhutto has also been persuaded by Mr Shahbaz Sharif to chair the parliamentary standing committee on foreign relations. More significantly, the PM’s recent statement that only “elected representatives” have the “mandate” to take decisions regarding the fate of the country should be welcomed by all, especially the elected representatives of the opposition who share in the “mandate” of the people.
On the face of it, Ms Bhutto also seems keen on burying the hatchet. She stopped attacking President Ghulam Ishaq Khan some months ago and has now obviously instructed her arch-dove Mr Iftikhar Gillani to extend the hand of friendship to both the President and the PM. Once Mr Zardari is out, we could expect these gestures to culminate in a meaningful dialogue which stabilises the political system.
Have Mr Sharif and Ms Bhutto then taken President Ishaq’s advise to shun confrontation and concentrate on building a political atmosphere conducive to good democracy?
Unfortunately, cynics are not impressed by this flurry of cooing noises and warm embraces. Reality is obscured by appearances, they say; in fact, a sophisticated and ruthless power-game is afoot which may yield another bumper crop of uncertainty in 1993. The fact of the matter is that while the new army chief, Gen Waheed, takes time finding his bearings and becoming his own man, the other power-players are manoeuvering to improve their positions and advance their respective ambitions.
Take President Ishaq Khan. He can hardly welcome Mr Sharif’s recent dallying with Ms Bhutto in the parliamentary foreign affairs committee, followed as it was by the PM’s rather forceful assertion that he wanted to make up with the opposition because “only elected representatives had the mandate to take political decisions about the country”. The reference to “elected representatives” could hardly be lost on the President: Mr Ishaq Khan is indirectly elected and his “mandate” (8th amendment) rests on the fiercely disputed legacy of a military dictator rather than that of any popular constituency. By all accounts, too, he should be increasingly concerned with the matter of his second five-year term. Surely, he would like to be elected with the votes of both the treasury and opposition benches as in 1988 so that he can flaunt his legitimacy. But that will require much cunning and greater ingenuity. So he has begun by trying to woo Ms Bhutto through the good offices of Mr Jatoi while retaining the references against her — a classic carrot and stick policy. In the same fashion, he keeps Mr Sharif in line by dangling the 8th amendment over his head and threatening to do a deal with the opposition.
Take Benazir Bhutto. Her ‘long march’ has fizzled out, there is considerable infighting and confusion within her party and her alliance-partners are getting increasingly disenchanted with her confusing ‘stop-go’ tactics and turn-abouts. Yet, ironically enough, she may have some crucial cards up her sleeve. The more warmth she affects for the President, the more suspicious Mr Sharif will feel about the likelihood of a “deal” between the President and her which involves getting rid of him. By the same token, the more friendly she is with Mr Sharif, the more the President will suspect the PM of trying to undermine the 8th amendment and undoing his ambitions for a second term. By playing footsie with both, she is hoping to create misunderstandings and suspicions between Mr Khan and Mr Sharif.
Take Mr Nawaz Sharif. Everybody knows that he would like to escape from the clutches of Mr Khan by installing Mr Ghaus Ali Shah in the presidency (without the 8th amendment) if he cannot himself become President (with the 8th amendment). Mr Sharif must also realise that his best chance to achieve his goal will come later this year. As the months tick away to the President’s re-election date, Mr Khan will progressively look like a lame-duck. Having lost out on his choice for the new army chief, Mr Sharif must want to clinch his objective quickly before the president and army chief gang up against him. So it makes eminent sense to make up with Ms Bhutto and undermine the President.
Yet another player has now jumped in to confuse matters further. Air Marshall (retd) Asghar Khan says he is a presidential candidate in 1993. The more the merrier, as it were. According to another conspiracy theory, Mr Ghulam Ishaq has decided to call it a day and will back Mr Asghar Khan as President and Mr Jatoi as PM. In other words, both Mr Sharif and Ms Bhutto will have to sit out until new elections can be held in 1994 or 1995.
Unfortunately, the games these people are playing have little, if anything, to do with the real problems of ordinary people. Is it too much to expect these Byzantine intriguers to put the country first?