On the eve of the general elections, two interesting developments are worthy of comment. The first are the results of polls by the Terror Free Tomorrow (TFT) organization and the International Republican Institute (IRI) and their blowback. The second is a meeting between Mr Asif Zardari and Mr Nawaz Sharif in Lahore in which the possibility of a coalition government was explored.
The TFT poll (Jan 19-29) concludes that (1) 62 percent of respondents support the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), while only 12 percent are in favour of the PML-Q). (2) 70 per cent want President Musharraf to quit office. The IRI survey concluded that (1) 79 per cent said if the PMLQ wins that would mean the elections were rigged. (2) 58 per cent said they would protest if the elections were rigged (3) 72% supported the PPP (50%) and PMLN (22%).
The collective results are a severe indictment of President Musharraf and by association foretell the dismal fate of the PMLQ. Unfortunately, the government has tried to discredit the pollsters by dubious means. This is quite pathetic. It may be recalled that during President Musharraf’s address to the Pakistani Community in USA in Washington on 24 Sep, 2006, the President said, “I know the people are with me. Even the opinion polls by foreign organizations prove that.” Indeed, in December 2006, the Musharraf regime proudly released the findings of an IRI poll which showed that General Musharraf was more popular in Pakistan than Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. Then on December 8, 2007, the government’s media mandarins released the findings of a poll by “US-based International Public Opinion Polls (IPOP),” showing a boost in President Musharraf’s popularity after he took off the uniform. But the Daily Times exposed the poll as a fraud because the IPOP did not exist. Now the government is questioning the very rationale of opinion polling that it once extolled and lauded.
But that is not all. The IRI has quit Pakistan recently because of the hostile attitude of the government. The IRI was forbidden from conducting “exit polls” which would have interviewed voters after they came out of the polling stations and shown how they had actually voted. If the elections hadn’t been rigged, the exit-poll results would have reflected the election results but if the elections had been rigged they would have diverged. So the conclusion is inescapable: the government has much to fear and hide. Indeed, it is this prickly issue that has kept the National Democratic Institute in the US and many senior human rights and EU observer groups away from these elections.
The second issue of a possible coalition of interests between the PPP and PMLN is related to the election results. Both popular parties agree that if the elections are rigged they will join hands with the APDM parties and lawyers and civil society activists to protest and boycott the results. If that happens, the credibility and legitimacy of the elections would be destroyed and President Musharraf would be stripped of local or international support, compelling him to quit.
The issue of forming governments is more complex. The PPP will surely be the single largest party in Islamabad followed by PMLN. If PPP wins an absolute majority, it will probably form its own federal government. If not, then it would have to choose a coalition partner from the PMLN and PMLQ. But it is doubtful if Mr Sharif will come on board as long as President Musharraf is still on the Hill and the pre-PCO judges aren’t restored. If Mr Zardari is unable or unwilling to oblige Mr Sharif on these two counts – in fact if the judges were restored they would quickly band together to throw President Musharraf out on one pretext or another – then he will have to make a coalition with the PMLQ. But he can extract a heavy price for sharing power with President Musharraf. If the president is inclined to hog the show or throw his weight about, Mr Zardari could always exercise the option of joining with Mr Sharif and stripping President Musharraf of his powers to appoint the army chief and dismiss governments and parliament or, if worse comes to worst, throwing him out.
Much the same sort of considerations would come into play in Punjab. But since no single party might win an absolute majority in the province, a coalition government would have to be cobbled here that would complement rather than confront the government in Islamabad. So if the PPP forms a government in Islamabad alone or with the PMLQ, it would have to form one in the Punjab with the PMLQ if it wants to work with President Musharraf. But if it wants to overthrow him its natural ally will be PMLN in Punjab. In Sindh, its options would be to go it alone or make a coalition with the pro-Musharraf MQM. Of course, a serious political crisis would erupt if the PPP and PMLN were to try to overthrow President Musharraf. In the event, the President would likely try to use the “agencies” to stiffen the resolve of the PMLQ, JUI and MQM to thwart the challenge.