The United States and Pakistan once had a very good equation. Not because of some inexplicable, mutual infatuation but because both countries were locked into separate, stable equations with other countries — Pakistan with India and the US with the USSR — which determined their relations with each other. Equilibrium in such a complex problematic could only be maintained so long as all elements of the political matrix remained unchanged.
This equilibrium was threatened when the cold war parameters in the US-USSR equation collapsed in 1989. That’s when the US told Pakistan that the original equation would be jeopardised if Pakistan decided to monkey around with certain sensitive variables affecting US-Pak relations.
We ignored the advice. Nor did we set out to explore new options to write a fresh equation. In any case, when tensions with India over Kashmir threatened a war last year, we are reported to have upgraded our nuclear programme, thereby effectively putting paid to our old equation with the US. The US responded by cutting off aid.
So, in essence, what has happened is this: last year, Pakistan decided to change its tack with India because it felt that Simla had been overtaken by the revolt in Kashmir which Pakistan was duty-bound to support. Because this policy lead to heightened tensions between the two countries, with war not ruled out, Pakistan is presumed to have readied a nuclear deterrent and scuttled its understanding with the US.
The impetus to change both equations — Pak-India and Pak-US — has thus come from Pakistan. That is why cursing the US for “unfairly” cutting off aid will not wash. We have to do better. If we intend to stick to our new positions, we have to negotiate a new equilibrium with a testy neighbour as well as a resurgent superpower.
Mian Nawaz Sharif has done well to send Mr Wasim Sajjad to Washington. The PM is suggesting that a new US-Pak relationship can be built on the basis of a fresh dialogue in the region which establishes new, durable and more equitable equations all round — US-Pakistan, US-India and India-Pakistan.
The US administration may not be averse to exploring the new avenues suggested by Pakistan in pursuance of long-term solutions. But its hands are fairly tied by a stubborn Congress determined to micro-manage US foreign policy and control global nuclear proliferation. Thus, instead of trying to understand the regional compulsions which propel Pakistan, Congress may well end up by trying to put pressure on India and antagonising it as well.
If the US seeks to control nuclear proliferation in South Asia, such Congressional methods will most certainly not work. India has lived without US largesse for over four decade and it will manage to do without it in the future. Pakistan may find it more difficult, especially since it is dependent on US spares and supplies of conventional weapons, but no Pakistani government can hope to survive if it is seen as rolling back on its nuclear programme under foreign pressure, without first having removed the fundamental causes of the country’s insecurity. If Congress persists with its approach, the US may end up losing all leverage in South Asia while simultaneously pushing both India and Pakistan to the brink of proliferation.
It is safe to assume that the US administration, as well as most American South Asia experts, recognise the validity of a regional approach such as the one which Mian Nawaz Sharif has advocated. But it will take some time for President Bush to effect a change of heart in Congress. his efforts to remove the Pressler constraints have been rebuffed by Congress. So we shall probably have no wait until after he is re-elected next year before we can expect any new and positive initiatives from him.
In the meanwhile, it would be extremely foolish for Pakistan to provoke matters any further. Our proposals are sound and sensible. We should continue to push for their adoption. But that means allowing time for the regional approach to be understood and digested in New Delhi and Washington.
It is therefore imperative that Pakistan should mend all its fences quickly as well as doing everything possible to avert the threat of a fourth round with India. Western fears of an impulsive Pakistan brandishing nuclear weapons should positively be set at rest. It is Pakistan which has upped the ante in New Delhi and in Washington, and it is Pakistan which stands to lose Western sympathy and support. We could do much worse by not making genuine efforts to cool things down all round.