General Pervez Musharraf is increasingly looking more like a brave helmsman than a great soldier. The ghost of September 11 – anti-American terrorism at home and in neighbouring Afghanistan – has been laid to rest. The Indian threat of war has been blunted for the time being by muzzling the local jehadis. The downslide in the economy has been halted by the successful solicitation of foreign aid, debt re-scheduling and debt re-profiling. Having thus made the transition from a pariah state usurper to an international partner and regional statesman, he is now ready to lap up the icing on the cake – a state visit to Washington as a guest of President George W Bush.
This is an extraordinary turnaround. It is remarkable because of the swift manner in which a lack of strategic vision has been compensated for by a decisive dose of political realism. Rarely in the annals of Pakistani history has dire necessity been so swiftly accommodated as common virtue. But hark. Therein could lie the seeds of despair if a measure of history is not taken.
General Musharraf has publicly said that he means to rule for another five years at least as president and army chief rolled into one. Indeed, the good general sincerely believes and says that “the country needs” him above anything and anyone else. This is a man who is already thinking of himself in terms of destiny and not fate. So be it. If he is wise and generous and brings peace and prosperity to this land, his hopes may bring welcome relief for the populace as well.
But it would be a mistake to see the beginning of the story as its end. Seen in the light of historical irony, some of these statements sound more worrying than assuring. Recall. Shortly before the polls for 1977, a supremely confident Zulfikar Ali Bhutto told friends that he expected to rule for twenty-five years. In the event, twenty five years were eclipsed into five months when he fell from power and twenty five months before he faced the gallows. Recall, too, the audacious manner in which General Zia ul Haq booted out a prime minister and parliament in early 1999 and didn’t live to regret his arrogant decision five months later. And let us not forget that Nawaz Sharif was talking in much the same sort of language in 1999 (Amir ul Momineen) before fate intervened and put him in his rightful place.
That is to say, if General Musharraf’s reign is marked by an arrogance of power and opportunist bent of mind rather than a disposition in favour of democratic power-sharing and farsightedness, it is bound to flounder. The three gentlemen referred to above had deluded themselves into believing they were justified in decreeing sweeping changes in the body-politic of the state and civil society because they were the long-awaited saviors of the nation. But if they had set more modest goals for themselves, including an honourable and democratic exit strategy, they might have fared better both in personal and institutional terms.
Seen in this light, the electoral amendments that are flying thick and fast and the sweeping constitutional changes on the anvil raise a host of apprehensions. There has been no significant independent discussion with the representatives, actual and potential, of civil society and the people of Pakistan about what is needed and what is workable. There is no credible attempt to make a level playing field for all politicians and parties, irrespective of caste, colour or creed. Indeed, if anything, the opposite is truer, that a stage is being set for fully-managed and pliable parliaments in Islamabad and in the provincials capitals of the federation. Equally, if a King’s party has not been officially announced, it has not been officially denounced as well – the efforts to cobble a grand Muslim League of Yes-Men without the nettlesome Nawazites are all too familiar. Finally, the attempt to whittle down the PPP is becoming obvious, the leading player nominated in this political treachery being none other than Aftab Sherpao. But even Mr Sherpao cannot be trusted to do the needful without ensuring a degree of compliance, courtesy NAB (a 1996 case has been dug up against him). What manner of “deals” have been suggested and cemented with the Wali Khans and Saifullahs of the NWFP, whose scions have tasted the bitter fruit of NAB and then been let off rather suddenly, also doesn’t require a leap of the imagination. The appointment of the former chief justice of the supreme court who helped legitimize the military government as the new chief election commissioner is equally evidential.
If General Musharraf’s windfall political profit is owed to pressing and rather pointed American requirements as much as it is owed to his own dexterity, he should start thinking of a time in the not too distant future when the hand of the great benefactor will not be there to bless him as advisedly. State interests change with changed circumstances, and circumstances may change without notice, as we all know only too well. That is when the brave helmsman will need more than just a clutch of soft hands on deck to traverse the ocean between fate and destiny.