A recent newspaper photograph shows Makhdum Amin Fahim of the Peoples Party looking like a deferential prime minister-to-be chatting amiably with a benevolent-looking General Pervez Musharraf. This has sent political pundits into raptures. A “deal” between Benazir Bhutto and General Musharraf has been clinched, they believe, in which the two, in association with the Like-Minded rebels from the Pakistan Muslim League, will make and run a “national” government in Islamabad after the October general elections next year. This speculation has been given a fillip by Ms Bhutto’s revealing statement to a middle-eastern newspaper in which she is quoted as saying that she would like to return to Pakistan and look after her children while her nominated prime minister from the PPP governs the country. Is this a plausible scenario?
It certainly doesn’t square with General Musharraf’s oft-repeated view that Ms Bhutto, no less than Nawaz Sharif, is corrupt as hell and must pay for her sins. In fact, the government calls her a convicted absconder from justice. Nor has it relented in the case of Mr Asif Zardari. Indeed, the recent arrest of the PPP Secretary-General, Jehangir Badr seems proof of the government’s abiding hostility towards Ms Bhutto and her trusted lieutenants, several of whom face the wrath of General Khaled Maqbool’s ever-zealous NAB. Is no “deal” necessary or possible from either protagonist’s point of view?
On the contrary. General Musharraf likes to portray himself as a straight-forward soldier who says it as it is and sticks to his word, come hell or high water. However, he is anything but that. In fact, the end justifies the means for our simple soldier. Remember his detestable but most practical “deal” with Nawaz Sharif when confronted with the spectre of the ex-premier’s martyrdom? Or his disappointing but pragmatic backtracking on the blasphemy law when threatened by the Islamic fundamentalists? Or his readiness to be “flexible” on Kashmir when faced with a belligerent New Delhi capable of imposing a destabilising conflict on the border? Or his quiet submission before the IMF in order to forestall external default and domestic anarchy?
No, the good general is capable of making a deal with the devil, if necessary, let alone Ms Bhutto, who increasingly seems a “lesser evil” compared to the vengeful Sharifs in exile or the violent mullahs in the wings. In fact, a strong case can be made out for a working alliance between the military led by General Musharraf and the peoples’ representatives comprising elements of the PPP, PML(LM) and MQM. How’s that?
Notwithstanding the “non-party” nomenclature attached to the local elections held recently, the fact is that pro-PPP candidates swept Sindh province and made deep inroads into Punjab and the NWFP. Similarly, the MQM remains master of all it surveys in Karachi and the PML-LM has made a niche for itself in Punjab. Projecting on this basis, the PPP is clearly the most “national” party of all. We can also confirm that the PPP voter is alive and kicking, having simply refused to turn out to vote in the last elections rather than switch sides. But it is the PPP’s abiding liberal and national outlook that is probably more relevant today than ever before as the country lurches dangerously between violent religious passions and stable economic self-interest. In fact, it is the one party that is naturally placed to help General Musharraf move the country forward in a modern and moderate manner.
General Musharraf must know this. Yet no one can take a potential alliance between the military and PPP for granted. Ms Bhutto would like to be prime minister, her husband by her side and her party loyally behind her. But Generally Musharraf would like her to remain in exile, her husband in prison and the PPP loyally behind him. The “deal” will therefore lie somewhere in-between these extreme positions as both jostle to overwhelm the other and extract maximum concessions in their own favour. That is where two recent developments become relevant. Ms Bhutto’s statement that she is ready to become a mother rather than a prime minister is meant to extract an early deal from General Musharraf so that her party can strengthen itself, sweep the next elections and put pressure on the military for a better deal for her later. But the sudden arrest of Jehangir Badr suggests that General Musharraf means to whip the PPP into an alliance of his liking rather than gamely let it impose one upon him. Thus we may expect the government to openly turn the screws on the PPP in the short term even as it discreetly reaches out to it in the medium term.
It is good that both sides have broken the ice and are talking to each other in the national interest. But neither should count its chickens before they are hatched. Certainly, we should expect some cunning manoeuvres from Ms Bhutto via her political allies at home and abroad and some firm manipulation by General Musharraf via his ubiquitous NAB. The dirty little great game of politics has begun all over again. Sit back and enjoy it.