Some Pakistani commentators have gushed about the recent Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) moot at Quetta as being “momentous”, “historic”, “imaginative” and “bold”. We might be more circumspect. The region’s geopolitics could conceivably reduce all the grandiose “bonding” plans of the ECO to nought.
Successful “economic cooperation” between countries is premised on a number of crucial factors: (1) a commonality of stable, institutionalised state structures which lend themselves to “bonding”. (2) a world outlook which transcends the burdens of a messy historic “past” and supplements the modern capitalist urge for economic assimilation and political uniformity. (3) a complimentarity of economies which sustains equitable trade and aid rather than economic imperialism. The EEC and ASEAN countries fulfill these requirements. SAARC does not. How do the ECO states fare on this scale?
Rather dismally, we fear. The driving forces behind the ECO are the “Big 3” — Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. The economic and political structures of these countries, as well as their security concerns and alliances with the US, were not too dissimilar nearly three decades ago when they launched plans for Regional Cooperation and Development (RCD). Yet, they didn’t make much headway. Today, by contrast, Turkey’s state is as avowedly “secular” as Iran’s is “Islamic”. Turkey is a solidly behind the US. Iran is implacably opposed to it. Pakistan is lost somewhere in-between. Despite the pious rhetoric, chances are they will push and shove, rather than cooperate with, one another.
Or consider the problems of the Central Asia states. Newly independent, their freedom was determined not by any indigenous movement with conscious goals and political structures but by the disintegration of the USSR. Such a sudden route to nationhood makes construction of viable state structures difficult in the short term and makes “bonding” impossible.
This is their current status. (1) Their borders were artificially drawn when they were assimilated into the USSR. These cut across 100 ethnic and national groups spread over five states. Major inter-ethnic conflicts haunt them, making rapid state-consolidation impossible. (2) Their military, police and administrative forces — state apparatuses — exist only in an embryonic form. The security environment is compounded by the fact that the CIS retains military bases and defence interests in all of them. (3) Their political parties, systems and leaders are hangovers from a communist past — authoritarianism struggles with religious ideology and democracy for primacy. Notions of civil society and political stability are hard to come by. (4) Russia remains an overbearing factor in all calculations. Each country has sizeable Russian minorities (9 million out of 55 million). Significant numbers of Russian troops are still stationed there. Their economic continue to depend on backward and forward linkages with Russia. Consequently, Russia will remain a paramount influence on their states and societies for years to come. (5) Their economies are stagnating, production structures are severely distorted, they have no independent currencies or hard cash reserves. They know nothing of economic management or market forces. These are serious obstacles to economic “bonding”. (6) Russia and the West are determined to promote secularism and democracy in Central Asia. They will now allow Islamic Iran or non-secular Pakistan to establish strategic footholds in the region.
Now come to Afghanistan. Here is a country devastated by 14 years of continuing civil war and blood-letting with no end in sight. There is no government to speak of, much less a state. It remains a victim of interfering neighbours seeking territories and warlords of influence. How can it play any meaningful rule in the ECO?
In fact, the motives of Turkey, Iran and Pakistan are mundane enough. They are all seeking desperate extensions of their home markets which, in the old days, was called “imperialism”. Turkey has taken a flying start. It is secular and has Western backing. it has earmarked over US$ 1 billion in soft loans and commercial credits spread over 40 bilateral agreements. Iran is also putting in men and money. Both offer, in due course, direct overland routes to the sea.
Interestingly enough, Turkey and Iran know the score. It is Pakistan which is deluding itself. We do not have the financial resources to match those offered by Turkey and Iran. Even the US$ 60 million in credits to Central Asia committed by Economics Minister Assef Ali a year ago has not yet been coughed up. We are also crucially dependent on Afghanistan for giving us access to Central Asia. But that may not materialise for years to come.
Is it any surprise then that, behind the lofty talk of “momentous” initiatives being taken at Quetta, the Big 3 could only bring themselves to commit a paltry US$ 100,000 each for preparing feasibility studies for a host of ambitious economic projects? The ECO is doomed to meet a fate worse than that of the RCD. It is going to be every country for itself and the devil take the hindmost.