Two weeks ago we wrote explaining why “the time had come for Mr Jamali to bid adieu after the budget session is over” ( TFT No: 15, June 4-10, 2004, Editorial: “Jamali’s days are numbered”). We argued that Mr Jamali had lost the confidence of both his “boss” General Pervez Musharraf and his “benefactor” Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain. The “boss” was frustrated when Mr Jamali wasn’t much help in resolving the logjam with the MMA over the LFO. The “boss” was irked when Mr Jamali balked at approving the NSC bill in cabinet. The “boss” was furious when Mr Jamali publicly insisted that the “boss” would take off his uniform before the year was out even as the “boss” himself was plainly reluctant to uphold his own pledge. Meanwhile, Mr Jamali needlessly stepped on the toes of the benefactor’s ‘benefactor’ Tariq Aziz by questioning his right to be secretary of the NSC. The benefactor, too, was aghast when Mr Jamali made a bid to curry favour with Pir Pagara and tried to get a toehold in the Muslim League. No, the fellow had become unpalatable to both his boss and benefactor. He had been chosen because he was a non-entity tribal chief from a non-entity province who was expected to be a non-entity prime minister who left the business of ruling the party to his benefactor and the business of ruling the country to his boss. If he had remained true to expectations, he would still be here. But the lesson that the “boss” has imbibed is obvious: once a politico, always a despised politico. Hence his choice of Mr Shaukat Aziz, technocrat par excellence, as the next prime minister without a party or even a political constituency to flog.
The quick sacking in succession of two of the most docile, handpicked, politicos in the business, Ghulam Maher, the former Sindh chief minister, and Zafarullah Jamali, implies a big no-confidence vote by General Musharraf in his own political system. The selection of Mr Aziz confirms General Musharraf’s cynical disregard for one and all of the 190 ‘pro-Musharraf’ elected political representatives of the people of Pakistan in the national assembly. Not one among them can claim to enjoy the trust and confidence of his/her unelected and unrepresentative “boss”. Further proof of the continuing breakdown of the Musharrafian system is provided by the failure of the architect to cajole the MMA’s Maulana Fazlur Rehman to sit in the NSC, despite having blatantly rigged his nomination as leader of the opposition in parliament, as well as by the refusal of the NWFP chief minister Akram Durrani, to participate in the proceedings of the NSC. No wonder, General Musharraf is having serious qualms about taking off his uniform from whence flows all his power. What next?
In the short term, we shall probably have to witness the sorry spectacle of Chaudhry Shujaat, an interim prime minister in a non-interim dispensation, learning how to carry the mantle of a prime minister on behalf of a prime minister-in-waiting. Then we may expect the opposition parties to gang up against Mr Aziz and throw mud at him. Also, since it is no longer a question of whether Mr Aziz will win or lose a seat in parliament – he must win – his election will surely be dogged by allegations of rigging and his subsequent conduct will be fogged by lack of legitimacy. In time to come, the fact that Mr Aziz, as prime minister of Pakistan, is not also the leader of the ruling Muslim League, will take a heavy toll of the new political arrangement and compel General Musharraf to change tack again.
Meanwhile, the MMA may expect to be next in the firing line. General Musharraf’s ire is evident. But there is no easy way out of his dilemma. Having embraced the MMA and ‘kicked’ out the Bhutto PPP, he is now fated to bear the slings and arrows of his erstwhile fundo ‘non-allies’ or swiftly pack them off. One way out would be to create a rift between the two leading fundos Qazi Hussain Ahmed and Maulana Fazlur Rehman. Another solution would be to contrive a legal judgment against the fundos for electoral disqualification on account of their inadequate religious “sanads” (degrees). The MMA could also be uprooted by sacking the NWFP assembly, allying with the ANP, buttressing the PPP-Sherpao and PML, and selectively rigging the new provincial elections. But each such step would amount to another big vote of no-confidence in the Musharrafian system without guaranteeing unmitigated long-term success and certainty.
So General Pervez Musharraf is coming full circle. Along the loop he has sacrificed or jettisoned many friends because their advice or practice was not opportune enough. Among these may be counted those who made the 1999 coup, those who drafted the local government system, those who fashioned the NAB, those who drafted his original liberal manifesto in 1999, and those who gave the Pakistan military its nuclear wherewithal to stand up to India. Now it is the turn of the civilians in his loop. Before General Pervez Musharraf is through reinventing the political system, they had better shape up if they don’t want to be shipped out.