General Pervez Musharraf has made some significant interventions that cry out for comment. They shed light not just on the state of India-Pakistan relations, the situation in Balochistan and the trouble over Kalabagh but also on the health of the ruling PMLQ-MQM coalition. Equally significantly, they provide a window into the mind of the man who rules Pakistan as a self-anointed Messiah.
General Musharraf has finally and publicly accused India of funding and arming the Baloch insurgency. Until now he had minced his words, referring to a “neighbouring country” that was fomenting trouble in Balochistan. No more. He is not “intrigued”, as the Pakistani Foreign Office spokesperson put it recently, by Indian’s hand. He is angry and objects vociferously. But then he does a somersault and shrugs away the extreme provocation, hoping that the peace process and dialogue will remain on track. For those who see a contradiction in this position, it is nothing compared to what follows next. General Musharraf also said that if the Indian prime minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, wanted to visit Pakistan for a spot of cricket after Eid, he would be happy to send him an invitation. Then he attached an unexpected conditionality to it: “If the Indian PM’s trip to Pakistan isn’t aimed at moving the dialogue on Kashmir forward, then it is useless and meaningless”, he said, or words to that effect. Not surprisingly, the Indian prime minister has swiftly responded with “thanks but no thanks”. It is unheard of in the annals of diplomacy for such a conditional invitation to be offered by one country head to another in public. What does all this mean?
It means that Pakistan and India are still playing tactical games with each other. Pakistan still hasn’t taken its hand out of Indian Kashmir. So India openly accuses it of continuing to fuel the terrorists and jihadis. But at the same time India is dialoguing peace with Islamabad. Now the boot is on the other foot. India has retaliated by fingering Pakistan in Balochistan. General Musharraf has accused it openly but also insisted at the same time that the dialogue for conflict resolution should continue. Both sides are also quite candid about a secret channel in operation that promises a non-sum-zero game. In other words, the name of the game still is “talk talk, fight fight”. So both sides can be sweet and bitter at the same time. There is therefore no threat of the Indo-Pak peace process breaking down and triggering hostilities.
General Musharraf’s critical partner in Sindh province – the MQM – is also playing tactical games with Islamabad. Two weeks ago, one of its Pakistan based leaders threatened to “quit” the ruling coalition if it announced the Kalabagh Dam. Within hours of the warning, however, the MQM’s media managers were desperately calling the media to offer a tactical retreat: it now said that it would “consider reviewing” its support to the ruling coalition in the event of a green signal to the KBD. Much the same thing happened last Sunday. The MQM said that it would quit the ruling coalition on January 13th (to be precise!) if the “military operation” in Balochistan didn’t stop forthwith and if the government decided to build the KBD. Three hours later, however, the MQM withdrew its threat after no less than the immaculate prime minister of Pakistan, Shaukat Aziz, followed by the mighty President-General Musharraf himself, groveled for an hour each before Altaf (Hussain) Bhai in London, and assured him of everything under the sun, including “non-military action” in Balochistan and the government’s retreat on the KBD. The MQM’s “interest” in both issues is obvious enough: it can’t support the KBD because that would wipe it out in the interior of Sindh; and it has to oppose army action in Balochistan because it too was once classified by the Pakistan army as a terrorist group and had to face its wrath in Karachi amidst ISI-MI allegations that it had received training and funding from India!
It is amazing, isn’t it, that General Musharraf can confidently talk to “arch-enemy” India that is fomenting an armed insurgency in Balochistan but cannot dialogue with two mainstream political leaders who were elected prime ministers twice each? It is amazing, isn’t it, that he can blithely ally with the MQM that was once the top “India-trained terrorist” on its hit list and even grovel before its leaders but cannot bring himself to massage Akbar Bugti’s tribal ego and negotiate his demands?
In an interview to an Indian TV channel, General Musharraf called one Pakistani journalist “unbalanced”. He probably meant that the journalist’s views were unpredictable or unsound. But he actually ended up suggesting that the journalist was “unhinged”. This was unworthy of the President of Pakistan. Similarly, he arrogantly dismissed the possibility of any corps commander disagreeing with his policies. “I’ll throw him out”, he bristled. This was unworthy of the Chief of Army Staff.
President-General Musharraf should demonstrate a degree of gravitas as required by the rules of conduct.
If he can’t, it will only be because he’s truly rattled by a string of policy failures.