To all intents and purposes, the existing power-sharing formula between the PPP and the PML-J in the Punjab has broken down. As chief minister, Mr Manzoor Wattoo wants to rule the roost. But, as chief advisor, Mr Faisal Saleh Hayat insists on calling the shots, especially in matters concerning the S&GAD and Home departments.
In this bewildering tug-of-war, the bureaucracy has lost its bearings. Many civil servants resent being moved about in a capricious manner. Others are hustling for plum appointments. All are worried about whose orders to follow. Cabinet formation has also been stalled and there is no agreement over who should be the new Governor of the province. An early manifestation of this malaise was provided by the shoddy manner in which the ruling-alliance conducted the December bye-elections in the province. Governments cannot function efficiently under such divisive circumstances.
Mr Wattoo’s arguments are weighty enough. He claims that if he hadn’t switched sides in April and stood his ground in May, June and July, Mr Nawaz Sharif would still be prime minister. Furthermore, if he had failed to lure away a dozen independents after the elections, Punjab would be in the clutches of Mr Sharif today, with predictably perilous consequences for the PPP government in Islamabad. Such “deserving” considerations apart, Mr Wattoo is offering to accommodate the PPP’s due interests (ministries, jobs, development funds etc) in the Punjab if he is given a freer hand in return.
Ms Bhutto, too, has a valid point of view. As the major share-holder in the province, the PPP should have the right to nominate its own chief minister. Failing that, it must have a dominant say in how the province is run. The PPP has fared badly in the urban areas and Ms Bhutto is anxious to rebuild her credibility quickly. Giving Manzoor Wattoo more power might mean allowing the PML-J to make inroads into the PPP’s potential vote-bank. Hence, some checks and balances over the PML-J are necessary in the long-term interests of the PPP.
Since both sides are being doggedly self-righteous, a precipitous disequilibrium of power has come to prevail. Mr Wattoo may have fired a warning shot across Ms Bhutto’s bow by absenting himself from Lahore when she came to the city recently. She has now taken him along with her to China in the hope of extending the dialogue and finding ways to appease him.
Short of withdrawing Faisal Saleh Hayat to Islamabad, it won’t be easy. Mr Wattoo is probably the shrewdest and most ruthless politician in the country. If he could stab Mr Sharif in the back after eight years of close association, he will have even fewer qualms about ditching Ms Bhutto and jumping right back into Mr Sharif’s lap should that become necessary for the advancement of his personal ambitions.
Ms Bhutto is on a weak wicket. Mr Sharif is looking for an opportunity to drive an irretrievable wedge between the PML-J and the PPP. If Punjab is lost to a Sharif-Wattoo alliance, the PPP government in Islamabad could flounder on the rock of political instability. With the NWFP and Balochistan out of grasp and Sindh in turmoil over the MQM’s refusal to play ball, this is a risk Ms Bhutto would be wise not to take.
The only way out, it seems, is to give the devil his due in exchange for an amiable sharing of power in the Punjab cabinet. If the PML-J ministers in Islamabad are content with their lot in a cabinet dominated by the PPP, there is no reason why the PPP ones in the Punjab should be dissatisfied with their status and privileges in a cabinet shared equally with the rest under CM Wattoo.
While Ms Bhutto mulls over the issue, she might also consider bringing in a new Governor whose virtues are not merely confined to blind loyalty towards herself. At least two other demonstrable talents are also necessary for the job in hand: an intellectual ability to perceive and respond positively to the longer-term interests of the PPP in the Punjab and the practical savvy to keep effective tabs on the wily chief minister. On this score, the choice is obvious enough: Chaudhry Altaf Hussain.
Here is a tried and tested man who can simultaneously match wits with both Mr Wattoo and Mr Nawaz Sharif and still manage to come out on top. Chaudhry Altaf also has a fair claim to the job: he relinquished his MNA seat to bail Ms Bhutto out of a tight spot when Mr Sharif was gung-ho about capturing the province last May.
The troika of Mian Manzoor Wattoo, Mr Jehangir Badar and Mr Nawaz Sharif has Punjab by the throat, arms and legs respectively. Ms Bhutto should stop prevaricating. She should recall Mr Hayat to Islamabad, give Manzoor Wattoo a better deal and ask Jehangir Badar to set about reorganising her party. Chaudhry Altaf Hussain, in the meanwhile, can keep a close eye on everyone.