The Friday Times: Najam Sethi’s Editorial
5th August, 2011
Imran Khan claims that a “tsunami” of popular support is building up to sweep him into power. The first part of the statement may be correct but the second part is easier said than done. This is how the calculation works.
The “Imran phenomenon” is predominantly urban and youth-based. In Sindh, the rural areas are solidly pro-PPP because of the “ethnic factor” while Karachi remains in the grip of the MQM, partly on the basis of the “muhajir factor” and partly because of the “fear factor”. Therefore Imran is not likely to make a dent there. Much the same fate awaits him in Balochistan. The Baloch are inclined to vote for the traditional mullahs, tribal chieftains or nationalists.
Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa is less predictable. In urban areas, where anti-drone sentiment is high, the PTI may pick up some seats in a low scoring six way fight (PPP, JUI, JI, ANP, PMLN and PTI). But it will be business-as-usual in FATA where “independents” will side with the eventual government in Islamabad to butter their bread.
The Battle Royale will be in the Punjab where two factors will affect the outcome. The first is rural vs urban. In rural areas, the battle will be mainly between the PPP-PMLQ alliance and the PMLN (with or without the JI and other religious groups). In the urban, the PTI will take a slice of the PMLN in every constituency, either winning it or enabling the PPP-PMLQ to scramble past the post. The second is south vs centre-north. The former is a PPP stronghold while the latter tilts to the PMLN. The PPP has improved its prospects by supporting the demand for a Seraiki province. The big loser could be the PMLN without making the PTI a big winner.
These calculations are not rocket science. How then does Imran Khan expect to sweep the next election?
He is demanding an independent election commission for two main reasons: to revise the electoral lists to oust “bogus” pro PMLN or PPP voters and include the pro-IK urban youth that has become enfranchised by virtue of age; and debar pro-PPP or PMLN candidates whose credentials are marred by charges of corruption or unexplained acquisition of wealth, paving the way for a host of unknown Mr Cleans of the PTI.
It is a fair demand. But there is no way the PPP and PMLN will hand it over to him on a platter. What next?
In a recent TV interview, Imran Khan blurted out his strategy when he claimed that “last November the army chief sent a message to the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court” that he wouldn’t stand by him in the event the court asked for its assistance under Article 190 to engineer the ouster of the Zardari government. Imran alleged that this amounted to a subversion of the constitution by the army chief and exhorted him to obey the dictates of the court if such an order was made in the future.
Clearly, Imran Khan is pinning his hopes on an army-judiciary move not just to oust the Zardari regime but to establish an interim government and permanent election commission and accountability process that sweeps aside the mainstream PPP and PMLN leaders, decimates their parties and paves the way for the PTI to emerge as the sole spokesman of Pakistan! Never mind if this is malafide. Never mind if it hammers another nail in the coffin of Pakistan by pushing the Sindhis into the ranks of the disgruntled Baloch. Never mind if it pitches the mainstream PPP and PMLN against the military when it is pitted against America, India, Pakistani Taliban and sectarian party terrorists in a bankrupt country.
A clutch of other anti-PPP and anti-PMLN hopefuls is inclined to endorse Imran Khan’s strategy. These are either remnants of the ancien regime of General Pervez Musharraf – Like-Minded Group, Clean Group, Forward Blocs – who have not been able to find a suitably elevated home in the mainstream parties or those whose prospects of getting tickets in the two parties are slim. Many among this lot are prime ministerial hopefuls, which makes it difficult for them to sit on one platform without conspiring against one another. Efforts to forge an anti-PPP-PMLN alliance between the PTI, General Musharraf’s APML and these non-afiliated groups are afoot. But the latter are keeping their options open until they know for sure which way the wind will blow.
The same strategy was followed a decade ago by the judiciary, army, orphaned politicians and ambitious technocrats in Bangladesh. But it crashed on the rocks of pride and prejudice, bringing the two popular but corrupt and incompetent Begums back to power. Today, Bangladesh, despite its many problems, is a vibrant economy and functioning democracy. Shouldn’t we take a leaf from our erstwhile other half and abandon shortcuts to reinvent the cranky wheel of democracy all over again?