Several interesting, and seemingly contradictory, developments are taking place. On the one hand, the Sindh chief minister has extended the writ of the Rangers in the province under Constitution Article 147 by three months and that too without any of the qualifications raised the last time round. On the other hand, the army chief has made it clear that the Rangers are now poised to enter the next stage of their cleanup operation in Karachi and will brook no obstacles in their path. As a measure of its determination, the military has finally produced and paraded Uzair Baloch, the well known terrorist gangster of Lyari with core connections to the PPP leadership, as a key element in the path of degrading and dismantling the terrorism network in the province. The testimony of Baloch is bound to put the PPP in the dock, despite sanguine statements from the leadership.
The declarations and role of the PMLN’s interior minister, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, are also intriguing. On the one hand, he is explicitly putting down Khurshid Shah, the PPP leader of the opposition in the Senate. On the other hand, a phone call from him to the Sindh Chief Minister seems to have persuaded the latter to quietly extend the term of the Rangers in Sindh. The stunning silence of the prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, in all these matters is no less fascinating, especially since it is none other than Nisar Ali Khan who has alleged a “deal” (“muk mukaa”) between the PMLN and PPP.
There is no doubt about the fact that an “understanding” exists between the PPP and PMLN whereby neither will do anything to strengthen the military establishment’s hand against the other because, carried to its logical end, all the civilians, rulers and oppositionists, could end up as losers. But this “understanding” was sorely tested recently when the Rangers went for Dr Asim Hussain and all the Sindh government’s protestations, no less than Asif Zardari’s outburst against the generals, fell on deaf ears in the Prime Minister’s House. This provoked the PPP leaders to threaten to end their “soft” opposition to the PMLN in parliament. But when they didn’t join Imran Khan’s relentless campaign to derail the PMLN government and trigger mid term elections, it was clear that the “understanding” between the PMLN and PPP was stronger than imagined.
Now a new test is on the cards. This has to do with the interrogation and revelations of Uzair Baloch who was quietly extradited from the UAE and kept in custody for over a year by the military establishment. If they have now decided to try him in full public view, it can only mean that they will go after those in the PPP who cultivated and nourished him and benefited from his criminality. But this is bound to infuriate the PPP Sindh government and leadership even more than the arrest and interrogation of Dr Asim Hussain and strain the “understanding” between the PPP and PMLN to breaking point. Under the circumstances, how has the Sindh government given the Rangers a fresh lease of life for three months? Has it been given solid assurances by Nisar Ali Khan that Uzair Baloch’s testimony won’t become a media trial of the PPP just like Saulat Mirza’s testimony became a millstone around the MQM’s neck?
The other interesting development is taking place in London regarding the fate of MQM supremo Altaf Hussain. The British government has decided to go slow with his prosecution under money laundering charges. This has surprised the MQM leadership in London because, fearing the worst, Altaf Hussain had set up a supreme council to take all decisions following the expected cancellation of his bail and likely imprisonment. The British government and Pakistani authorities are also deadlocked on the matter of extraditing the alleged murderers of Imran Farooq who are in custody in Pakistan in exchange for the separatist Baloch leaders holed out in London. It appears that the Pakistanis want Altaf Hussian tried and jailed in London on one count or the other and the Baloch extradited to Pakistan for trial but the British authorities are not prepared to do that. What abiding interest the British have in Altaf Hussain is not clear.
No less fascinating and unprecedented is the sweeping gag order on the utterances of Altaf Hussain by a high court in Lahore. Mr Hussain’s name and that of the MQM does not figure in the list of banned terrorists or terrorist organisations flogged by Pemra. So while the media may be ordered to black out any anti-state or anti-military outbursts of the MQM leader, it seems patently unjust to gag him thus. This is the same MQM and the same Altaf Hussain who were thriving “business” partners of the military establishment under General Zia ul Haq and General Pervez Musharraf.
The answers to all these questions lie with General Raheel Sharif. We should therefore know soon enough which way the wind will blow.