The facts cry out for urgent resolution. In the last ten days, over 100 people have been killed in Karachi. In the last 90 days, terrorism has claimed over 1,500 lives with 100 bomb blasts and 10 suicide attacks. There is no end in sight to the killings. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has responded to the Karachi situation by proposing a special cabinet meeting to consider and formulate a clean-up operation in the city. And he has set up a Cabinet Committee on National Security that is tasked, among other things, to formulate and implement a counter-terrorism policy against the Taliban.
These “better late than never” steps are very welcome. But we shall have to wait and see what steps are actually taken and what results are achieved.
The MQM has proposed handing over Karachi to the Pakistan Army for a neutral clean-up operation against all perpetrators of violence and terrorism in the city regardless of their political affiliations. On the face of it, this is surprising since the MQM has long warned against any army-led solution to the problems of the city. Memories die hard of the army-led clean-up operation of 1992 ordered by the Sharif government and the Police-Rangers-led operation from 1994-96 ordered by the Bhutto government since the MQM was the sole target of both operations. But there is a powerful rationale for an apparent about-turn this time.
The MQM is unhappy with its erstwhile PPP partner in Sindh for imposing a local government system in which all financial and administrative power will rest with the PPP provincial government rather than the MQM that has swept the city and rightly deserves to rule it. That is why it signaled its displeasure by voting for Mr Sharif’s presidential candidate. Now it has gone the extra mile by advocating martial law in Karachi. By so doing, it hopes to send an even stronger message to the PPP in Sindh because such an operation will target not just the MQM’s militant wing but also those affiliated with the PPP and ANP.
This is a safe and effective ploy because the MQM knows that Nawaz Sharif would never take such a step in view of his determined stance to keep the army out of politics. Indeed, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, the federal interior minister, has already said “nothing doing” to the MQM’s proposal and instead suggested a clean-up operation based on the police and Rangers under the command of the current Sindh government. This will put pressure on the PPP’s Sindh government to reach a modus vivendi with the MQM to jointly protect their interests in the province. If the PPP doesn’t keep the MQM on side, it will face the prospect of Governors Rule by the federal government, which would be a major blow to its political confidence and fortunes.
Under the circumstances, with the MQM and PPP playing hide and seek games, it will not be easy for Mr Sharif to move swiftly, decisively and efficiently in Karachi. If the PPP and MQM are jointly in control of any clean-up operation in Karachi, it will amount to nothing with all sides blaming the other for its failure. If the federal government imposes Governors Rule, both will cry foul and protest.
Mr Sharif has also set about bringing all civil-military stakeholders on board national security issues in general and counter-terrorism in particular. The interior minister, Chaudhry Nisar, will take charge of Homeland Security and Counter-Terrorism while the National Security Advisor, Sartaj Aziz, will also oversee its foreign policy dimensions as Foreign Affairs Advisor with the rank of a minister. On the face of it this too looks to be a good strategy. But in actuality it is burdened from the start by the political egos and ambitions of both its overseers.
Chaudhry Nisar should be in charge of one and not both of the portfolios because each is a full time job. The interior minister can lord it over the FIA and Rangers but leave Homeland Security and Counter-Terrorism to another full-time competent person. Similarly Mr Aziz should retain either NSA or Foreign Affairs. They should both take a leaf out of the practice in the US where the FBI (our FIA) and Homeland Security (our CT department) are two different organizations tasked with two different missions just as the State Department (our Foreign Office) is separated from the NSA (in the US, the NSA is affiliated to the White House while in Pakistan it is in the Prime Minister’s Office). Under the circumstances, the current approach is fated to fail in delivering a comprehensive and effective national security doctrine and counter-terrorism policy.
Mr Sharif’s heart is in the right place. He wants to set things right in his grand vision for change. But he has not yet demonstrated the know-how of paradigm change in Pakistan.