Mian Nawaz Sharif’s hugely enterprising reforms in deregulating the economy and unburdening the public sector must be applauded. This has been his singular success. He must, however, understand that a liberal economy’s sine qua non is a liberal society. And that is where he has failed. In that sense, Mian Sahib’s first year in office evokes disturbing images of bungling, corruption, false promises, intolerance and political crises.
Looking ahead, a number of problem-areas can be identified. Foremost is the need for a consensus on the rules of the game. If Mian Sahib is unable to mend his fences with the opposition and push the President on the back foot, a political crisis of unmanageable proportions is on the cards. Although Mian Sahib’s recent overtures to Benazir Bhutto are most welcome, doubts persist about his willingness or ability to deliver on the just demands of the opposition. That public sentiment and international opinion is also urging him to strengthen democracy and put a premium on tolerance and institutional growth should not be lost on him. In turn, the opposition should give up its demand for a ‘national’ government and play an honourable, stabilising role in the assemblies.
Once a ‘live and let live’ agreement is in place, the PM should swiftly dismantle the dangerous legacies of the Zia ul Haq era, notably the distortions in foreign policy and ‘Islamisation’ which threaten to isolate Pakistan from its friends abroad.
Take foreign policy. (1) The Afghan solution is within grasp. For over on year, we have bent over backwards to accommodate certain stubborn elements of the Mujahidin. If they still refuse to see the logic of new realities, they should be told where to get off. (2) Relations with the United States need to be handled with subtlety. We should temporarily freeze our nuclear programme and thereby give the American administration greater elbow-room to nudge the Indians into accepting proposals for a nuclear-free zone in South Asia. India would like nothing more than for US-Pak relations to take a nose-dive, for Pakistan to be branded as a ‘rogue regime’ and for military spares to be denied in order to weaken Pakistan’s conventional defences. Therefore, our efforts should be directed at persuading the Americans to restore military supplies, isolating India in the international community (by focussing on human rights violations in Kashmir and Indian unwillingness to sign the NPT) and propagating the view of Pakistan as an open, forward-looking, democratic country. (3) Relations with India should be improved. Several confidence-building measures can be initiated: opening up trade, facilitating travel and cultural exchanges, encouraging private dialogues between the media on both sides, resolving Siachin, pushing for an agreement on ‘no-first use of nuclear weapons’ and no-war pact, etc. If the Indians drag their feet, we should promptly acquaint the international community of Indian rigidity.
‘Islamisation’ policies need urgent and bold review. From time to time, ‘Islamic’ laws impinge on our Anglo-Saxon jurisprudence, often with disquieting results especially in the arena of criminal punishments and cases relating to zina. When that happens, the superior courts are expected to bail us out by reverting to Anglo-Saxon procedures. But the existence of two parallel bodies of law is fraught with dangers. It is also patently unfair and unwise for the legislature to make certain ‘Islamic’ laws for politically opportune reasons and then expect the judiciary to do its bidding and overrule or sidetrack them in everyday life. This sort of double-dealing or hypocrisy by government fools no one, yet it can become a source of instability at home and adverse publicity abroad. One potentially troublesome area relates to the increasing encroachments of the Federal Shariat Court into financial matters, as for example in outlawing ‘interest’. Instead of challenging the FSC’s decision boldly, the government has sought to meekly seek ‘clarifications’, thereby sweeping the issue under the rug. It is precisely this sort of ostrich-attitude which is likely to hurt Mian Sahib’s sound economic policies. By all means, let the FSC retain its advisory powers. However, to allow it to acquire supra-legislative authority (the FSC is on the verge of effecting such powers today) would undermine the prerogatives of an elected parliament and erode the vitality of a modern democratic system.
Mian Nawaz Sharif is fortunate that his foreign policy agenda, which is to all intents quite proper, is backed by the new army high command. So 1992 may indeed yield long overdue dividends. The weakness, and there are many, are on the home front where government is perceived to lack legitimacy and where the writ of the state is wearing thin. Accommodation with the opposition can create the framework in which to move forward and consolidate reform. A failure to do so will reinforce the PM’s unfavourable image, sabotage his efforts to inject liberalism in society and eventually jeopardise the political system.