How has Pakistan Inc fared under CEO President General Pervez Musharraf? What can we expect from him next year?
The EconomyGDP growth is over 6% and cotton production is over 12 million bales the highest in a decade. Exports and imports are buoyant, the currency is stable, and forex reserves of US$11.5 bn, and home remittances of nearly US$2 bn in the first half of the current fiscal year, are impressive. Tax collections are rising. Total external debt is about US$34 bn, no more than before. The IMF has gone.
For Good:
For Bad: Inflation is up to 9%, the highest in a decade. Unemployment and underemployment have risen. Income inequality has worsened. Poverty alleviation strategies have not yielded visible benefits. Direct foreign investment was about US$400 mn July-December, which is quite pathetic by emerging market standards and shows a lack of long term international confidence in our economy, despite short term improvement in credit ratings. On top of it all, we expect to spend more money on buying arms for the military – up to US$3 bn than ever before. Most social indicators of national health remain abysmally poor.
The Political Scene General Musharraf enjoys greater legitimacy at home and abroad than last year, partly because of the passing of the 17th constitutional amendment and partly because of his new foreign policies. Pakistan is back in the Commonwealth. A thaw has been affected with the mainstream PPP at home and with the “old enemy” India next door. Pakistan has got back into the good books of the sole superpower (although it’s a moot point whether that is good or bad!). The print media is freer than under the Nawaz Sharif regime and a transparent policy is being followed in opening up the electronic waves.
For Good:
For Bad: General Musharraf has broken his public pledge to quit as army chief. This has eroded his credibility. He has sacked one hand picked prime minister, shunted another, and appointed a third, in the space of three months. This shows a distinct lack of confidence in his own system. The continuing tension between the provincial and local governments, followed by the recent announcement of non-party local elections later in 2005, confirms this perception. There is no succession principle in his system. This means that if something were to happen to him, every significant appointment, policy and undertaking would be up for grabs. His inability to substitute the military’s traditional partnership with the religious parties with one with the mainstream liberal PPP in strategically changed circumstances shows an inherent weakness and contradiction in his system. He cannot sustain a liberal and moderate agenda at home and a flexible and pragmatic foreign policy abroad without the right supportive partners in parliament and government. Selective repression in the media and continuing administrative apathy about human rights violations has tainted his reputation. Violent sectarianism is still rife. Crime has risen across the country. Sub-nationalism in Balochistan is acquiring threatening dimensions. There is no national consensus on major issues of dams and water and revenue sharing among the provinces.
Civil SocietyGeneral Musharraf’s “vision” of “enlightened moderation” is welcome. The “cultural” environment is less suffocating. Women’s participation in professional life is not officially frowned upon. The government is not insensitive to crimes against women and minorities. A law has been passed against honour killings. A commission of human rights has been proposed. Fundamentalist religious edicts and fatwas are generally ignored. Parliament has passed a resolution owning the famous “secular” speech of Mohammad Ali Jinnah, the Quaid i Azam, to the Constituent Assembly in 1947, extolling the virtues of being free citizens of Pakistan without regard to caste, creed or colour. The courts are being nudged to shed their neo-conservatism. Al-Qaeda terrorism and jehadi fervour has diminished.
For Good:
“Enlightened moderation” exists in theory but not in practice. Madrassa reform has been put on the back burner. Education revamp is mired in bureaucratic wrangling and niggardly resource allocation. The government has been cowardly in backtracking before the mullahs on the issue of blasphemy and the column for religion in the new passports. The bill against honour killing is full of holes. The pro-Quaid resolution in parliament was missing from PTV Khabarnama but overplayed on PTV World, suggesting mere show value. Judicial reform and speedy justice is nowhere in sight.
OUTLOOK for 2005The economy will grow without significantly denting poverty. Relations with India will improve without breakthroughs on Kashmir. Political rapprochement will be primarily aimed at divide and rule rather than any genuine power-sharing. The religious parties will huff and puff but won’t be able to bring General Musharraf down. His personal security will remain the weakest chink in his armour. He will not anticipate major problems or find solutions to them like a great statesman or visionary leader. But like a true commando-General he will decisively blast his way out of trouble when he gets into it. Therefore we may expect his policies to remain long on tactical retreats and dubious advances in response to changing ground situations but short on strategic vision in anticipation of irrevocably changed longer term realities.