Despite some last minute hiccups, the 18th constitutional amendment, with no less than 105 amended clauses, additions and deletions, is poised for approval by a 2/3 majority in both houses of parliament. This is no mean achievement. It carries the imprint of a historical consensus across the political divide not witnessed since the constitution was subscribed in 1973.
However grudgingly, credit must go to President Asif Zardari’s PPP which launched the process of political reconciliation of competing interests. Certainly, it couldn’t have been easy for Mr Zardari not just to relinquish all his presidential powers but also, and more importantly, to open the route for Mr Nawaz Sharif to become prime minister for a third or fourth time while enhancing the powers for the chief justice of Pakistan (CJP) in the selection and appointment of judges. The widespread perception is that Mr Sharif will now push for a mid-term election while the judges are spurred to “get Mr Zardari”. If that happens, the constitutional consensus will give way to battles on the streets, media and in the courts.
The hiccups in the run-up to the agreement on the constitutional amendment are worth noting for what lies ahead. Mr Sharif pulled out at the nth minute in order to strengthen the hand of the CJP. Then, after his objections had been incorporated, he was conspicuous by his absence, along with his brother Shahbaz Sharif, the chief minister of Punjab, from the grand session of parliament addressed by Mr Zardari before the introduction of the amendment in parliament. But he wasn’t the only one signaling mal-intent. The MQM Governor of Sindh, Dr Ishrat ul Ibad, feigned illness and cried off too. It may be recalled that the MQM, a strategic ally of the military establishment and a tactical coalition partner of the PPP in the federal and Sindh governments, stabbed Mr Zardari in the back last year by refusing to support his bid to get parliament to ratify the NRO, whence all his trials and tribulations have erupted. And only last week, the Attorney General, Anwar Mansoor, an erstwhile MQM supporter who was earlier Advocate General Sindh on the recommendations of the MQM, left Mr Zardari in the lurch and switched over to the side of the CJP.
Clearly, the judiciary and government are heading for a fatal crash. The Supreme Court (SC) has ordered the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), under the seal of the federal law ministry, to ask the Swiss authorities to re-open the money laundering case against Benazir Bhutto and Asif Zardari. But the federal law minister, Babar Awan, has said this can only be done “over my dead body!” The SC wants the former Musharraf- appointed Attorney General, Malik Qayyum, to present himself in court and explain under what law or authority he wrote to the Swiss authorities in 2008 asking them to close the file on the case. But Malik Qayyum has fled the country. Now the federal law secretary has retired to hospital after informing the SC that there is no record of the authority or law relied upon by Chaudhry Farooq, the Attorney General under the Nawaz Sharif regime, to write to the Swiss authorities in 1997 asking them to investigate the royal couple in the first instance. The PPP has also publicly vowed to oppose any attempt to “dig up the grave of its martyred leader Benazir Bhutto” in pursuit of any cases and is openly accusing the SC of victimization in the name of accountability. Sooner rather than later, key PPP functionaries will simply refuse to obey the SC. If they are hauled up for contempt and sentenced, the government will likely reprieve them, a power that the President still enjoys, or reward them for their loyalty. In any case, conventional wisdom claims that the president enjoys constitutional immunity from prosecution. Therefore the SC will have to execute some truly embarrassing somersaults to bypass that barrier and lose more credibility.
Mr Sharif, meanwhile, is likely to focus on the economic woes of the people – like inflation, energy shortages, industrial stoppages and increasing impoverishment – to knock out the government. Petitions are also likely to fly challenging Mr Zardari’s right to be both PPP Co-Chair and President of Pakistan. If upheld by the SC, Mr Zardari will lose his presidency and presidential immunity or his hold over the party which is his real source of power. The belt-tightening IMF imposed budget due in June could trigger mass agitation for regime change.
At that stage Mr Sharif’s options will become clear. He could bid for an alliance with Mr Zardari’s erstwhile partners, MQM and ANP, and try to form a coalition government. Or he could push for a midterm election. But the army and judiciary, whose institutional experience of the autocratic Mr Sharif is bitter, could thwart his plans by conniving to cobble a “national government” with the help of the PMLQ, MQM, ANP and PPP without Mr Zardari.
Therefore, if the space is narrowing for Mr Zardari, it is by no means certain that it will open up for Mr Sharif. This is the ongoing tragedy of a nonfunctional political system in Pakistan besieged by multiple crises of governance and civil-military relations.