An Indian astrologer has predicted that General Pervez Musharraf will not have an easy ride in 2007. But another is silent about his fate. Our own crystal ball is a bit murky with lots of “ifs” and “buts”. However, one thing is clear. General Musharraf means to remain both president and army chief for the indefinite future.
One way of remaining president is to get the present parliament, in which his ruling PMLQ and its allies have a slim majority, to re-elect him president for another five years before his term is up later this year rather than risk a new parliament born on the basis of an uncertain general election upsetting his apple cart. But this course of action is subject to two qualifications: first, it will be seen as a measure of desperation and weakness on his part and therefore fail to provide the popular legitimacy that he seeks; second, it could be challenged in the supreme court as being unconstitutional and there is no way of knowing which way the court will blow under the current chief justice whose penchant for heroics should not be ignored. In any case, a president thus elected amidst bitter controversy won’t be able to garner the 2/3rd parliamentary majority to amend the constitution and remain army chief as well. So even if General Musharraf clutches at this option before the next general elections he will certainly have to get a similar endorsement from the next parliament if he is to bid for his uniform.
Thus everything hinges on the results of the next general elections. But how on earth is he going to get not just a simple majority in the next parliament in order to be president but a 2/3rd majority in order to remain army chief? His chances of accomplishing this fairly and squarely are as bleak as those of a snow ball in hell.
The ruling Muslim League is factionslised and the Forward Block is itching to rear its head. The alliance partners are refusing to merge into one cohesive and organized fighting unit under one centralized and acceptable leadership. Meanwhile, popular sentiment for the Peoples Party is surfacing in Punjab and Sindh while that for the MMA mullahs in the NWFP and Balochistan is not diminishing.
The last time round, the PPP got the largest number of votes but could only muster 25% of the number of seats in the national assembly, thanks to some clever manipulation of the ‘first-past-the-post-system’ by the “agencies”. This was then slashed to 20% by enabling nearly 20 PPP MNAs to cross the floor and then making sure (through a cunning decree) that they couldn’t retract their decision. But this time matters will be different. For one, the PPP is more popular than in 2002 and the PMLQ is less so. Therefore the same tactics will have to be applied, albeit on a bigger scale. But more significantly, it won’t be possible now to nudge anyone to cross the floor after the elections since the law against floor crossing that helped lock up the rebel PPP MNAs in General Musharraf’s stable in 2003 will not allow anyone to get into it either in 2008.
Equally, the last time round the MMA with only 11% of the votes was able to net nearly 20% of the seats in parliament. But after the elections they were able to increase their tally to 25% with the help of FATA and other independents. Eventually, in exchange for a ringside seat in the National Security Council and the slot of the leader of the opposition, the MMA enabled General Musharraf to get a 2/3rd majority to amend the constitution and remain army chief. This time round, however, the MMA wants to get rid of General Musharraf for various reasons – “he is an American puppet, he has amended the Hudood Ordinances, he is revising the textbooks to remove notions of jihad, etc”.
Therefore the only way out for General Musharraf is to charter a course based on four nodes. One, split the MMA so that the JUI stays on his right side while the fiery Jamaat Islami is exiled to the wilderness. Two, split the ARD so that the PPP is persuaded to live and let live with him while PMLN is sidelined along with the JI. Third, crack the whip and get the PMLQ to set its house in order by accommodating the Forward Group. Fourth, activate the ISI, MI, IB and Rangers to safely “deliver” the next general elections after suitable political “deals” with the PPP and JUI have been clinched. In exchange for supporting General Musharraf’s bid for president and army chief, a bunch of carrots can be offered to the PPP and the JUI, including coalition governments in three provinces and possibly even prime ministership to Benazir Bhutto a few years after the elections .
Will the PPP and JUI bite? If they do, we can be assured of stability and continuity. But if they don’t, the compulsion to rig the elections blatantly is bound to provoke a major boycott by the ARD. In the event, we may face the spectre of martial law or political anarchy all over again in 2008.