Contrary to the government’s expectations, the lawyers’ support for the Chief Justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Chaudhry, isn’t petering off. In fact, the protest rallies seem to be getting more fired up by the week. The CJP is also cashing in his sudden popularity by rallying bar associations across the country. Most ominously for the government, almost all the judges of the Sindh and Peshawar High Courts have weighed in publicly on the CJP’s side. If the same spirit of solidarity is demonstrated by the judges of the Lahore High Court when he visits the city to address the bar next week, it would bring the judges of the Supreme Court presiding over the fate of the Reference under great peer and public pressure.
Consequently, a degree of nervousness is palpable in the Presidency. That is the only explanation for the hasty and ill-advised attempt by PEMRA to try and gag sections of the electronic media from showing public support for the CJP. It also explains another ungainly attempt by Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, the PMLQ president, to pit pro-Musharraf supporters against pro-CJP protesters in Islamabad the other day. Finally, President Pervez Musharraf’s round of “off-the-record” meetings with media representatives, editors and columnists is focused on acquainting them with the breadth of the allegations of misconduct against the CJP, some of which haven’t even figured in the Reference, and proves that this matter concerns and worries him deeply.
And so it should. If the CJP is restored, he is bound to become a big thorn in the side of the executive in general and President Musharraf in particular. Indeed, it is more than likely that under his publicly revitalized leadership the superior judiciary would swing from its predictable pro-executive policy framework to an anti-executive populist mood overnight. Given the authoritarian and unaccountable predilections of the executive, whether democratically led or not, this is bound to lead to a gridlock in government and even conceivably pose a challenge to parliament, with resultant instability in the country. The threat to President Musharraf’s plans would be more direct and short term in nature. He would not be able to count on the judges to support him sufficiently on four critical issues ahead: his re-election by the current parliament, nomination of caretaker administrations in the provinces and at the centre, selection of the chief election commissioner and his desire to be both army chief and president for another five years. This is a not a prospect he is likely to relish.
Clearly, the government is determined to send Justice Chaudhry home, come hell or high water. The addition of Sharifuddin Pirzada to the president’s battery of lawyers indicates the high stakes. The shifting of the drama from the Supreme Judicial Council to a full bench of the Supreme Court, followed by the withdrawal of one of the judges from the bench that is going to hear the CJP’s petition against the SJC, suggests many twists and turns to come.
President Musharraf’s strategy may be fairly anticipated. He wants this issue out of the way before the four critical questions noted above are posed. In one June/July scenario, the government might envisage a passing of the budget in strength, re-election of the president by the current assemblies, a decision against Justice Chaudhry, the end of the assemblies and an announcement of the next general elections three months hence, in October, thereby giving President Musharraf about ten weeks in office as president and army chief under a new parliament. This would give him an opportunity to lean on the judiciary sans Justice Chaudhry or cut a deal with the PPP in parliament to sanction his pressing needs. Meanwhile, the lawyers’ protest against any anti-Justice Chaudhry decision by the Supreme Court is likely to be lost in the heat and dust of electoral battle.
Is there a Plan B? Irrespective of whether Justice Chaudhry survives or not, the fact is that President General Musharraf’s popularity has significantly ebbed while that of his various opponents has soared. The PMLQ is finding the load of incumbency too heavy for comfort. The judiciary cannot be taken for granted any more. The Military Mullah Alliance that stood him in such good stead in the 2002 elections has evaporated. Instead, the spectre of political Islam is threatening to undo his reform agenda and compelling his American allies to crib about his increasing “incapacity” to do more in the war against terror. And the people are restless and want change. Under the circumstances, he would be advised to abandon any thoughts of going solo.
Pakistan is a land of living paradoxes. Here is one that is staring President General Musharraf in the face. Perhaps the only way he can cling to power is by relinquishing some of it in a timely and democratic manner. He should enlarge the support base of his popular power by agreeing to reduce his executive power. He can do so by sharing the spoils of office instead of hogging power. The best way to do that is to hold free and fair elections that give him and his erstwhile partners and future allies the credibility and legitimacy required for good and stable governance.