Till last week, Saddam Hussain wore the mantle of Salauddin Ayubi and threatened to become the Wizard of Oz. Angry Muslims all over the world licked their lips in anticipation of American body bags galore.
In the event, the Scuds disintegrated into thin air. The mother of all battles turned out to be the mother of all routs. And Saddam Hussein reverted overnight to a military charlatan who, the Believers now believe, was probably in cahouts with the Zionists to humiliate the Ummah! Well, well.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has spent many uncomfortable weeks pursuing spin-control and defending the Allies. The lengthening cracks in his ruling IJI alliance must have been positively unnerving. Indeed, there were moments when it seemed touch and go, especially when Gen Mirza Aslam Beg thundered his displeasure before the Rawalpindi garrison last month.
The PM has also been forced to part company with the chief architect of his foreign policy, Sahibzada Yaqub Khan. And if now he has manoeuvred the exit of Maulana Niazi, his most vocal critic in government during those difficult times, surely he may be forgiven for crowing about the vindication of his stance and reasserting his authority.
If the PM, however, thinks the past was simply a bad dream and that good times are about to roll again “because Pakistan has a significant role to play in rebuilding and protecting the Gulf”, a word of caution is in order.
The fate of Saddam Hussain has been settled but not yet sealed. The Allies are in no hurry to exit from Iraq, let alone the Gulf. The Sheikhdoms, toting up their losses, are in no mood for handouts. Their first priority is to reward their comrades-in-arms — the Western powers, Egypt and Syria — who are queueing up for the goodies. Pakistan, which is counted among the also-rans, should think itself reasonably fortunate with what it has thus far scraped together — 50,000 barrels of crude per day for three months from the Saudis and a lenient interpretation of the Pressler Amendment by the Americans which allows for certain military agreements on spares and leasing to run on unchecked.
As for Pakistani businessmen and workers rushing to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia in droves, the prospects of fruitful employment are not terribly bright, notwithstanding the tall claims made recently by Mr Ijaz ul Haq, Minister for Overseas Pakistanis. More likely, in view of the distrust generated among the states of the Gulf by our peoples’ pro-Saddam sentiments, we may find ourselves outstripped in the race for jobs and contracts by the Egyptians, South Koreans, Philippinos Indians and Sri Lankans. Even the Chinese people, who remained stolidly pro-Allies during the conflict, are looking to edge us out.
How else can Pakistan play a “significant role in the Gulf”? If the PM is alluding to the possibility of Pakistani participation in an American-Saudi sponsored security arrangement for the future, he might be advised to think again before leaping into Western arms. If such an arrangement does materialise in the future, it is pertinent to ask one question: from whom will the Gulf states seek protection? If Iran is seen as the potential regional threat and thereby excluded from such an arrangement, will it not take the view that Pakistan is an American Trojan horse in the region? Iran has said that Pakistan has no role to play in the Gulf. If we try and prove otherwise, what, then, will be the fate of our newly-flogged doctrine of “strategic consensus” with Iran?
Which, of course, brings us full circle. The disquiet among a section of the corps commanders led by Gen Beg and forcefully articulated by him recently relates to the future dynamics of Pak-US relations. This is a body of opinion which strongly believes that our buddy-wuddy relationship with the Americans is now at the end of its tether. If the rupture is fated to come because of our determination to proceed full steam with our nuclear programme, then it should come sooner rather than later, and preferably on our own terms rather than those dictated by the Americans. Gen Beg’s doctrine of strategic consensus with Iran, notwithstanding its fundamental limitations, comes into play precisely at this juncture. It is not without ominous significance that, irrespective of whether or not he retires next August, he is consciously pulling out all the stops to quickly place his key men in positions of authority within the top echelons of the armed forces. Nor is all this talk of upgrading the post of the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, and creating a National Security Council without portend.
Although the war in the Gulf has ended, Mian Nawaz Sharif’s hopes of reaping long term political dividends for himself and for Pakistan from his foreign policy are largely misplaced. There is no significant role we can play in that region. Even if one were conceivable, it ought to be prefaced by careful construction of a national consensus.
An unthinkingly plunge into the Gulf is the last thing Mian Sahib should be talking about. It could land him in seriously troubled waters.