Pakistan must be one of the few countries of the world where every new year pundits are expected to hone their skills and predict whether the end is nigh again or whether the country will manage to scrape through as in the past. Alas. The more we expect things to change, the more they stay the same.
Of course, from General Pervez Musharraf’s lordly viewpoint, Pakistan has never had it so good. On the economic front, forex reserves are unprecedentedly buoyant, the fiscal deficit is tightly controlled, tax revenues are burgeoning, foreign remittances are gushing into the coffers, the Karachi Stock Exchange has broken all-time barriers, economic restructuring is chugging along nicely, agricultural growth has been revived, a large chunk of foreign debt has been rescheduled, inflation is low, the trade balance is healthy, privatisation has kicked off, the country’s credit ratings have improved and, believe it or not, the rupee is actually putting up a fight against the dollar for the first time in its life.
On the political front, too, we mustn’t scoff at the list of General Musharraf’s achievements. From being a pariah state, he has made Pakistan an ally of the West. He has also kept his promise and held free general elections, smashed the corrupt PPP and wicked PML-N, upheld press freedom, brought errant businessmen and politicians to heel, wrought an obliging prime minister and institutionalised the role of the army in politics for the sake of Pakistan’s political stability. As if all these plusses were not enough for our erstwhile historians to wrestle with, General Musharraf has defeated India without fighting a war and warded off future threats to our beloved homeland without bankrupting the budget. Pity the ungrateful nation that refuses to acknowledge such greatness when it is thrust upon it by not making its saviour soldier president and army chief for life.
But critics are aplenty. So, for the record, we must grudgingly note that investment and large-scale manufacturing are stagnant, unemployment and poverty are knocking at the door of the middle classes, economic growth remains stunted, the new political system is wobbly and immoral, the West is having nightmares about Pakistan’s weapons of mass destruction falling into the wrong hands, Islamic terrorism is rife, General Musharraf is a prime target of the fundos, India is biding its time, and the impending US war against Iraq is casting a dark shadow over Pakistan and its leader(s). In fact, it is this latter development that should be the focus of our concerns for 2003.
The US has decided on a regime change in Iraq. That is for sure. Whether this is to be triggered by a conspiratorial coup against Saddam Hussein or an outright assault on his armed forces or a combination of both, the blowback effect on Pakistan will not be insignificant. A wave of anti-Americanism will engulf the country. Many more frustrated and angry youngsters will incline towards terrorism and militancy. Elements of the MMA will seek to exploit the situation to undermine General Musharraf. Parliament may well become an embarrassment instead of a convenience. The KSE will dive for cover, scattering the hard earned savings of expatriate Pakistanis and profits of corporate entities. Investment plans will be put on hold. Oil prices may rise, impacting not just on the balance of trade but also on the cost of living. Economic and political discontent at home could embolden India to risk some destabilising external adventure. Worse, if the US is successful in “sorting out” Iraq, it could turn its pre-emptive doctrinal focus on Weapons of Mass Destruction to Pakistan later in the year. This might imply an American tilt towards India in a status quo peace initiative that is sure to cause heartburn in Rawalpindi. If the military resists this move, the international pressure for greater democratisation and civilianisation in Pakistan could unravel the political skein so painstakingly woven by General Musharraf.
There are many ifs and buts ahead. What is clear is the need for an enlightened and bold vision for the future. Whatever General Musharraf’s boasts, the fact is that even a GDP growth rate of 6 per cent a year is insufficient to address our core problems of poverty, illiteracy and population growth; the fact is that national security is not enhanced by a running conflict with India in which we barely manage to stay in the same place; the fact is that “Islamisation” of state and society is against the interests of the modern nation-state; the fact is that sponsoring an institutional role for the military in the political system is a failsafe recipe for national instability.
General Musharraf has demonstrated a commando’s ability to take quick, instinctive and courageous decisions to blast his way out of trouble. This is a measure of his skilful pragmatism to ensure survival. But nation building also requires a strong dose of idealism and farsightedness. Certainly, in our case, there would have been no Pakistan without the idea of Pakistan to inspire the vision of MA Jinnah in the first place. God knows how much we need leaders with a vision for the future.