The Indo-Pak seesaw is a frustrating game. In 1990 Benazir Bhutto and Rajiv Gandhi all but resolved the Siachin issue and put Kashmir on the backburner. But Mr Gandhi didn’t have the courage to cement the deal. In 1997 Nawaz Sharif and Inder Kumar Gujral agreed on eight working groups to discuss all outstanding issues, including Kashmir. But Mr Gujral lacked the will to lock in the deal. In 1999 Nawaz Sharif and A B Vajpayee signed on the dotted line at Lahore for a composite dialogue on all issues, including Kashmir. But General Pervez Musharraf sabotaged the summit by staging Kargil. Then came Agra in 2001. General Musharraf now went the extra mile and agreed to the need for a composite dialogue with India in which Kashmir figured as a central if not core issue. But Mr Vajpayee put a dampner by precondioning a halt to alleged cross border infiltration by Pakistan.
As the two sides paused to re-consider their next moves, 9/11 changed the equations all over again. With Pakistan distracted by Afghanistan, India sought to exploit the situation by threatening war. But Pakistan weathered the storm and compelled India to change tack again. Last April, Mr Vajpayee offered his “hand of friendship” to Pakistan by resuming the bus service from New Delhi to Lahore. Pakistan sincerely reciprocated with a list of potential confidence building measures, including a return to the path of dialogue abandoned at Agra. But New Delhi would have none of it. Now, many months later, India has claimed another “12-point historic opening”.
Some of the measures are uncontroversial. More rail and road links. A new ferry service between Bombay and Karachi. Restoration of over flight rights and air links. A liberal visa regime. Etc. But the new proposal for a bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad is transparently malafide. It is clearly meant to clinch a new state practice which treats the disputed Line of Control in Kashmir as a settled border between India and Pakistan. Apparently, this proposal has the backing of the international community which is keen to freeze matters in Kashmir along the status quo so that the two sides can stop rattling sabers once and for all. But India is still refusing a dialogue for conflict resolution.
Islamabad has “calibrated” its response because it is irked by New Delhi’s attempt to make capital out of proposals originally advanced by it. Adverse statements by India’s foreign and defense ministers clearly show how they were meant to placate the international community and lacked sincerity. Indeed, it seems that the BJP would have loved nothing better than for Pakistan to reject the proposals and lose the PR game.
Of course, Pakistan has not fallen into that trap. But it has seemingly countered with a wish list of its own that runs into 13 points compared to 12 by India, a case of classic one-upmanship. This impression is reinforced by offering to treat 40 Indian children free of cost in Pakistani hospitals compared to 20 Pakistanis in Indian hospitals. Indeed, Pakistan has amended certain tricky Indian proposals “creatively”, as in proposing UN officials at the immigration crossings along the LoC for Kashmiris with “UN documents” on the proposed Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus, and in offering 100 scholarships for Kashmiri students to study at Pakistani professional colleges, as well an offer to treat “disabled Kashmiris” and assist “Kashmiri widows and rape victims”. Islamabad has also decided to delay talks for a restoration of bus and rail links until after talks with India on a restoration of air links and over flights in the first week of December, suggesting that if the first round fails to satisfy Pakistani conditionalties on over flights, the second round may be postponed.
And so it goes on, payment back in the same khota coin, stupid bloody mindedness by both sides. We would have liked to see transparently good and sincere proposals from India in the first place that could have been reciprocated by Pakistan in the same spirit. What is stopping India from unilaterally restoring the rail, bus, air and diplomatic links that it unilaterally cut off in 2001? What is stopping Pakistan from granting MFN status to India when India granted it to Pakistan many years ago? Is this time for rigid cost-benefit analysis by both sides or is it time for generous give and take?
Unfortunately, this is neither the beginning nor the end of the seesaw game. The war in Kashmir is getting increasingly bloody. The fear is that another bloody incident could throw a dangerous spanner in the works and make the current proposals look not just totally misguided but also misplaced. What then? Will India mobilize its army all over again and threaten Pakistan? Will Pakistan respond by hinting at a nuclear holocaust?
There is no alternative to an immediate and composite dialogue between India and Pakistan on all disputes, including Kashmir. This is what India said for ten years but Pakistan rejected by imposing pre-conditions on the dialogue. This is what Pakistan is saying now but India rejects by imposing pre-conditions on a dialogue. How sad and unfortunate that both nations have now been reduced to such puerile behaviour.