Mr Arif Nakai, the Punjab chief minister, is a rustic, laid back, genial sort of fellow whose unabashed pursuit of the good life often makes for screaming headlines. His phraseology is sprinkled with the choicest “expletives deleted” in the language, an affectation which endears him to many Punjabis. He would love to string up people “upside down” when they provoke his displeasure but he can rarely budge to carry out his threats. He has no pretensions, which means what you see is what you get. Admirable qualities, if you happen to be a prime minister on the lookout for a minion who is not wont to straying from the straight and narrow path delienated by Islamabad.
Unfortunately for the Punjab, though, Mr Nakai’s style of governance leaves much to be desired. He has the largest coterie of ministers and advisors in history, so much so that the Lahore High Court has been obliged to consider the constitutionality of his outlandish generosity. Mr Nakai’s fondness for “shikar”, again at state expense, has also caused some irritation. And his unrequited passion for Mercedes and Pajeros, preferably duty-free, has provoked condemnation in some quarters and embarrassment in others. But these are trifling matters.
Of serious concern is the splintering of the province into as many fiefdoms as there are ruling party MPAs. While Mr Nakai fiddles with the provincial purse, warlordism is becoming a way of life in the hapless province. Every MPA is master of all he surveys. He can insist on administrative postings, transfers and suspensions in his constituency, he can cheerfully offer contracts and receive commissions, he can make, break or bend the law to his heart’s content, and there is nothing much that the Governor, Chief Secretary or IG Police can do about it. If this is not a recipe for corruption, nepotism and anarchy, we don’t know what is.
The worst affected seems to be the police department which is expected to look after “law and order”. A recent report submitted to the prime minister runs into several pages of names of police officers who have been appointed only at the pleasure of ruling party MPAs bent upon crime and plunder. Under the circumstances, it is amazing that doers like the current Governor, CS and IGP have been able to survive.
On the face of it, Ms Bhutto’s solution for Punjab seemed good enough. A set-up with a dummy chief minister coupled with a loyal senior minister was designed to keep her coalition partners happy without making the ruling party despondent. However, both gentlemen were supposed to be kept in line by a handpicked troika of administrators. But things haven’t worked out as planned. Elected representatives are a wicked, devious lot who are hard to control or pin down. In fact, the rules of the game are designed to bestow power, prestige and patronage upon them.
Ms Bhutto now faces a stiff challenge. Municipal elections are at hand and the PML(N) is poised for a sweeping victory. What should she do?
PDF politicians say they are ready to take on the PML(N) by hook or by crook. But the administrative troika is advising her to go for “non-party” polls because it thinks that the provincial bureaucracy can handle that situation better. Both are mistaken.
Municipal elections are likely to be held at a time when the fallout from the budget and several mini-budgets has antagonised and alienated the urban public. If Ms Bhutto had had some residual goodwill in the province, she might have been able to weather the budgetary storm and “manage” the polls. But, thanks to her shortsightedness in propping up a leaky, lame-duck arrangement remotely controlled from Islamabad, her name is mud in the province. If she tries to rig the elections, she risks an angry and violent backlash on the streets. If she doesn’t, she will be faced with gridlock down the power lines of the province and be swept out of office when the next general elections roll round.
In a perverse sort of way, Punjab has become the bane of the rulers in Islamabad. Ms Bhutto learnt this to her dismay in 1990 and Mr Sharif in 1993. Therefore when Mr Manzoor Wattoo began to spread mischief last year, Ms Bhutto was quick to disabuse him of power. She got away with it because the judiciary was still subservient to the executive and because the President remained blindly loyal to her. But things are different now.
The judiciary is bristling with contempt for the prime minister. And President Leghari’s irritation with government has become uncomfortably manifest. Sensing the lie of the land, Mr Wattoo has prayed the High Court to restore him to office. If he should get his toe in, he could pose serious problems for the prime minister.
Then there is the wildcard called Imran Khan. He is popular with middle-class, urban Punjabis for focussing on corruption as the issue of the day. If an angry judiciary were to take up this cause, the multitudes would most likely spill over into the streets to avenge the VIPs who have betrayed them time and again. In that case, Ms Bhutto will be in for a lot more trouble than she has bargained for.