Wali Khan is roaring about Pakhtoonwa rights in the Frontier. Altaf Hussain is thundering about rightful compensation in Karachi. Akhtar Mengal is screaming about Balochistan’s fair share of federal revenues. All three gentlemen have ganged up. They are warning Nawaz Sharif to fulfil his “deals” with them, or else. What the hell is going on?
Permit us to take you back to an editorial we wrote in August 1997 titled: “Alienation of the State”. We explained how and why Mr Sharif’s opportunist deals with dubious politicians in the NWFP, Balochistan and Karachi were bound to lead Islamabad into a state of confrontation with the three provincial governments. We warned that this could pose severe problems in the periphery. “If Mr Sharif ignores these incipient threats to the state or gives in to them”, we wrote, “his federal democracy will lead to provincial anarchy. But if he deals with them unfairly or harshly, he will provoke a provincial backlash against federal autocracy”. We went on to conclude that “Islamabad needs to fashion a firm and fair policy in the periphery. Anything less or more than that could lead to an abuse and alienation of the security organs of the state. That would be unacceptable. Forewarned is forearmed”.
Of course, Nawaz Sharif did not heed good advice. In fact, he was so obsessed with accumulating power for the sake of power that he went on to strike unrealistic and unworkable deals with all sorts of disreputable people merely in order to muster parliamentary support for wholesale changes in the constitution. Now these people are demanding their pound of flesh.
There is no doubt about the fact that Mr Sharif promised Mr Wali Khan that he would rename the NWFP as Pakhtoonkhwa in exchange for the ANP’s support to all the constitutional changes planned by the prime minister. The ANP did its bit on the 13th and 14th amendments. It also stood solidly behind Mr Sharif when he blasted the Chief Justice, with Mr Asfandyar Wali bravely firing his own contemptuous salvos at the Supreme Court. Now the time has come for the quid pro quo and Mr Sharif doesn’t know what to do. If he fulfils his commitment to the ANP, he risks creating a dangerous rift in his own party. He may also have to deal with a violent backlash from a substantial non-Pakhtun presence in the province. Finally, he may have to contend with adverse sentiment in the armed forces about such a radical and possibly far-reaching policy change. But if he backtracks on his unholy deal, the ANP will raise the cry of “Punjabi treachery” and evoke memories of Bangladesh in 1971. What will Mr Sharif do? Dismiss the provincial assembly and impose Governor’s rule? We’re damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t!
Much the same sort of situation prevails in Karachi. The MQM says — and there is no reason to doubt it — that Mr Sharif promised, among other things, that he would free hundreds of imprisoned MQM activists accused of terrorism. He also agreed to give the MQM a free hand in knocking out the Haqiqis from their strongholds in Karachi. All this and more, in exchange for blind support in parliament. Now the MQM is crying foul because Mr Sharif cannot keep the bargain. If he yields, the MQM will bounce back with a bang, Karachi will slip into bloody anarchy and Sindhi nationalists will get a new lease of life. Mr Sharif will also have to contend with anger and bitterness in the army, rangers and police which have lost hundreds of men combatting terrorism and putting these terrorists in prison. If he doesn’t yield, his coalition in Sindh will face rough weather and instability. What will he do? Impose Governor’s rule on the province? We’re damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t!
The trouble brewing in Balochistan today was also predicted earlier. The caretaker government delivered a signed and sealed National Finance Commission Award to Mr Sharif. But Mr Sharif foolishly allowed the contentious issue to be reopened when he bid for the support of Mr Akhtar Mengal in the national assembly. Worse, he made the mistake of wooing Mr Akbar Bugti by promising to take his side in his tribal dispute with close allies of the Mengals. When Mr Mengal and Mr Bugti delivered their votes to Mr Sharif, Mr Sharif returned Mr Bugti’s favour but alienated Mr Mengal. Now the Mengals and the Bugtis are embroiled in mutual tribal tensions and both are estranged from Mr Sharif. Impose Governor/s rule? We’re damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t!
Nawaz Sharif’s foolish obsessions are proving dangerous for the country. He thinks that he can fool all the people all the time. We think not. Mr Sharif’s rash indiscretions are bound to explode in his face sooner or later. The only problem is that it may be too late to salvage the nation and the state by the time he is finished.