General (retired) Pervez Musharraf is making the most of his forced retirement. He is ensconced comfortably in his own flat in London, hobnobbing with friends, playing bridge, giving interviews, lecturing at conferences and offering to serve Pakistan as an everlasting patriot. He has said that he wouldn’t mind becoming an official ambassador of goodwill and peace between Pakistan and India so that he can help conclude the back channel diplomacy launched in 2004 for settling the thorny issue of Kashmir. He has also expressed a desire to re-enter politics as soon as the mandatory two-year hiatus after relinquishing public office is over by the end of this year.
Back home, however, his foes are baying for his blood. Mr Nawaz Sharif wants him tried for treason for overthrowing his democratically elected government in 1999. The family of Nawab Akbar Bugti insists he should be tried for the murder of the Baloch patriarch. The Chief Justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, is keen on declaring illegal and unconstitutional everything General Musharraf did in his capacity as army chief after November 3, 2007. President Asif Zardari and the PPP still hold him responsible, if not culpable, for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December 2007. And his erstwhile, now orphaned, PMLQ allies of the past, Chaudhry Pervez Elahi and Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, have finally shrugged their shoulders and ruefully admitted that he had long ago become a political liability for them.
For all these reasons, General Musharraf was quietly advised by his handpicked army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, to get off his high horse and slip out of the country in April. Ever the blustering but pragmatic man, General ® Musharraf took the advice and followed the well-trodden path of exile fated for many Pakistani leaders in the past, including Benazir Bhutto, Asif Zardari, Nawaz Sharif and Altaf Hussain, all with no small thanks to him.
General Musharraf recently remarked that he regretted not asking Parliament in 2004 to let him be President for five years instead of three. This wasn’t a blindly self-righteous or arrogant statement. It underscores the significance of the core issue in 2007 which derailed him irrevocably. This was the sacking of CJP Chaudhry at the prodding of key vested interests – including the DGMI, CM Punjab, the federal law secretary, and the PM – so that the “maverick”, potentially “troublesome” judge could be got out of the way before bidding for a second presidential term in November.
The sacking of the CJP was followed by a series of events and decisions that rebounded on General Musharraf and hastened his exit: the restoration of the CJP by rebellious peers in July; the November 3 mini-coup to protect himself against a resurgent SC; the shedding of his uniform as a compromise gesture; the notorious NRO and murky deal with Benazir Bhutto to buy political longevity; the return of Nawaz Sharif at the insistence of Saudi Arabia; the assassination of Benazir which came to be laid at his door; the routing of the King’s PMLQ party in the 2008 elections; and the subsequent rise to power of Asif Zardari and the consequent political isolation and alienation of the man on the hill from his erstwhile political partner and former military institution.
General Musharraf’s eight years in power were marked by many ups and downs, twists and turns. But he didn’t ever see anything as a reverse or setback, making rank political opportunism a fine art of “tactics” and “strategy” (his favourite two words). He was the adventurer who went all guns blazing into Kargil, then retreated in abject shame. He was the strutting cock in Agra in 2001 who refused to close the jihadi tap into Kashmir, then faced the full Indian army on his border and hurriedly pledged to stop exporting terrorism. He was the strategic American ally after 9/11 who refused to acknowledge the links of the jihadi organizations with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, then became their target of assassination when he was compelled to close down their camps. He was the “enlightened moderate” who pledged to reform the blasphemy law, then backpedaled furiously on the advice of the ISI when threatened by the mullahs. He was the most radical “out-of-the-box” thinker on Kashmir who couldn’t complete his agenda. He was the most popular man in Pakistan at the end of 2006 and the most reviled one a year later. Is there a political role for him in the future?
Pakistani politicians and generals never retire. Unimaginable and strange things have also been known to happen, like the elevation of Mr Asif Zardari to the presidency! But General (retd) Pervez Musharraf’s star is not likely to rise and shine again until his everlasting nemesis Nawaz Sharif remains the most popular contender for power in the country. Personal security is also an issue. Every Islamic radical, extremist and suicide bomber desperately wants to avenge Lal Masjid. Since neither can be wished away for the next ten years or so, unless Allah so wills it, we are not likely to see the general in Islamabad for some years to come.