Having somersualted 360 degrees, PM Nawaz Sharif must now reap the bitter harvest of his seedy policies of yesteryear when he was CM of Punjab. Mr Sharif was decidedly feisty when Benazir Bhutto sought a political solution to Afghanistan and tried to oust Gen Hameed Gul. Now he is scurrying about taking shelter from the fallout of Gul’s forced departure and the Jamaat-i-Islami’s wrath over a change in Afghan policy. He accused Bhutto of selling out to the US on Pakistan’s nuclear programme. Now he is squirming in his seat after having frozen the bomb in the basement in order to appease Washington. He needled Bhutto to ‘Islamise society’. Now he is seeking to escape the clutches of the Federal Shariat Court. He accused Bhutto of pandering to India by dragging her feet over Kashmir. Now he is in desperate straits with India over the JKLF’s attempt to violate the Line of Control.
The PM’s Afghan policy is belatedly moving in the right direction. But there are pitfalls ahead, not least because the fundamentalists remain a potent force and Mian Sahib’s infatuation with Qazi Hussain of the Jamaat lingers unnecessarily. Likewise with ‘Islamisation’, which threatens to scuttle the PM’s flagship of privatisation. The biggest problems ahead, however, have to do with nuclear policy and Kashmir, both of which involve bristling foreign powers and require a consensus at home and subtle diplomacy abroad.
Of immediate concern is Pakistan’s Kashmir policy which lacks cohesion. No attempt has been made to define short-term tactics and long-term strategy. In Switzerland Mr Sharif told Mr Rao that he was keen on a dialogue with India. But in the same breath he jeopardised the dialogue by announcing a protest-strike on February 5 against Indian atrocities in the Valley. In consequence, the government sat back smugly while the JKLF went on to organise its long march to cross the Line of Control. When the Indians threatened war, however, he called in the army to rein in the JKLF. Having raised the level of hysteria all round, the PM is now finding it difficult to effect restraint.
Thanks to Indira and Rajiv Gandhi, Kashmir is today a more potent issue than ever before. But certain realities demand careful consideration. The Simla Pact, with its obvious compulsions for Pakistan, all but buried Kashmir in the 1970s. In consequence, the Cease-Fire Line became the Line of Control. That is why, in international circles, the Indians have been successful in flogging the argument that Kashmir no less than Siachin is a bilateral issue between the two countries.
The fact is that while Pakistan accepts the implications of the LOC, Kashmiri leaders on both sides don’t. Pakistan must therefore define a fine line between its positions under the UN Resolutions and those under the Simla Pact. If we are seen as aiding and abetting violation of the LOC under the Simla Pact, India ca accuse us of violating the Pact by sponsoring violent “terrorism” in its backyard. And if such a charge is made to stick, Pakistan’s “moral, political and diplomatic” support of the Kashmiris under the UN Resolutions will fall on deaf international ears.
India has already approached the five permanent members of the UN Security Council to complain that “Pakistani inspired terrorism in Kashmir” is destablising New Delhi and warned of “suitable action”. If Pakistan is unable to quell JKLF emotions, it will play into Indian hands and erode its moral high ground.
But Pakistan has unwittingly stumbled into a potentially advantageous position, provided it plays its cards well. India, which has long determined not to allow the Kashmir dispute to be internationalised, has been compelled by recent events to do precisely that. Because its human rights record is so bad in Kashmir, it could end up with egg on its face if Pakistan is able to demonstrate its commitment to the Simla Pact while stressing the “international” nature of the Kashmir dispute.
By provoking India into a knee-jerk reaction to run to the UN, the JKLF’s Mr Amanullah Khan has already succeeded beyond his wildest expectations in drawing the world’s attention to the desperate plight of the Kashmiris. But the JKLF has much to lose by provoking violence across the LOC and embarrassing Pakistan. India has internationalised the issue. It must not be allowed to get away by diverting attention tot he alleged “terrorist interference” of Pakistan.
Mr Sharif is presented with an, excellent opportunity to show his commitment to the cause of Pakistan and Kashmir. He can do so only by suitably harnessing the tactics of the KJLF and encorporating them into a Pakistani strategy of keeping India on the back foot in the international arena. If India were to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council, as envisaged by its new Secretary-General, before the Kashmir issue is adequately internationalised, all will be lost. Now is the time to take the opposition into confidence and define a long-term strategy.