General Pervez Musharraf’s ascent to the Presidency shouldn’t come as a surprise to discerning TFT readers. Three months ago, we editorialised (Trussed up like a President, TFT March 2-8, 2001), that he was “readying to don the mantle of the President of Pakistan” and wondered whether “the simplest way would be for him to follow in the footsteps of Caesar, Napoleon or Ataturk — having seized the crown, he could put it on his head, change his tunic and announce: ‘l’etat, c’est moi!’” (‘I am the state’). Should this happen, however, we noted advisedly, that “he would have traversed a much trodden path in Pakistan’s sad history during which the Presidency has housed all sorts of conspirators (Iskander Mirza, Ghulam Ishaq Khan), usurpers (Generals Ayub, Yahya, Zia), stooges (Chaudry Fazal Elahi, Rafiq Tarar), misfits (Farooq Leghari) and witnessed or sanctioned all manner of political instability or perversion”.
Last week (Action wanted, TFT, June 15-21, 2001), we thought D-Day could be round the corner. “General Musharraf is not on a weak wicket any longer. He has rung changes in the army’s high command so that all critical slots are manned by hand-picked generals loyal to him. He has neutralised India and the international community by initiating the regional peace process and buckling down to IMF conditions. He has assuaged the prickly domestic business community by nudging NAB to focus on the public sector while restraining the ubiquitous CBR from fishing in troubled waters. And he has successfully unleashed the process of local elections, thereby isolating the traditional political parties in the run-up to the general elections next year. If ever there was a budding Bonaparte in Pakistan, it is General Pervez Musharraf”.
That is exactly what General Musharraf has now done — put the crown on his head rather than wait to be crowned. Having scratched the back of the international community by ticking off the fundos, freezing defense expenditures and reaffirming faith in IMF-dictated policies in the new budget, he must be pretty sure of getting away with his audacious fait accompli.
Barring an accident, he probably will. Nawabzada Nasrullah & Co will rant. Benazir Bhutto will shriek. Nawaz Sharif may squeak. Qazi Hussain Ahmad will bluster. But who cares? The Commonwealth will protest. The EU will condemn. But so what? The Japanese and Americans will cluck disapproval, urge him to note their concerns and continue doing business with him. And General Musharraf will start sprucing up in sherwanis and suits for his forthcoming visit to India so that he is accorded a reception befitting a head of state legitimised by no less an august body than the Supreme Court of Pakistan. Meanwhile, the people of Pakistan will wake up and go to sleep as usual, as though they’ve seen it all before.
Beyond that, there will be other milestones to cross. The move will certainly be challenged and clever legal arguments will be aired in the courts. But a judiciary that has taken oath under the PCO and legitimised the coup, and a Supreme Court whose chief justice has sworn in the new president, are hardly likely to undo their own decisions.
Nor is the fate of the PML(LM) a moot issue any longer. The decision to put the suspended assemblies out of misery will force many Nawaz dissidents to stand on their own feet and face the competition for the hearts and minds of the voter squarely. Others may join the cabinet to improve their prospects. It also means that the confusion and uncertainty about whether or not the next general elections will be held as promised before October 2002 has been removed. Finally, the news that General Musharraf will remain the Chief Executive implies that there will be no interim prime minister — until a new one is nominated by an elected parliament next year and is asked by President Musharraf to demonstrate a vote of confidence prior to becoming the chief executive atop a cabinet of elected ministers.
In the months ahead, we may witness some new constitutional developments that don’t necessarily clash with the guidelines of the supreme court of Pakistan. The National Security Council headed by the president may be further institutionalised, ostensibly in the interests of “national security”. The provincial elections may be staggered one by one, presumably to get a better “handle” on the provinces. An element of proportional representation may be brought into the general election process supposedly to provide for greater “electoral fairness”. The president may acquire the power to sack the prime minister and his cabinet without simultaneously sacking the parliament for purposes of “electoral stability”. The president may transfer some of the subjects of the concurrent list to the exclusive domain of provincial parliaments in order to massage the hurt egos of the provinces in the face of strong local governments. And the next national and provincial assemblies may come to resemble a cluster of fractured groups and alliances rather than abodes of the two mainstream parties so that the president can exploit their differences and lord it over them.
So what’s new? The sordid game has begun all over again. The message is clear. Those who don’t like it can lump it.