If a “consensus candidate” is not available, the two main parties are going to slug it out for the Presidency. Benazir Bhutto would understandably like to see the Presidency shorn of its 8th amendment powers so that she doesn’t have to worry about being stabbed in the back again. So she might conceivably toy with the idea of trying to do a deal with Mian Nawaz Sharif. In return for supporting his candidate, she could demand Mr Sharif’s commitment to swiftly undo the 8th amendment. Is that a workable proposition?
We think not. Even if Mr Sharif were to agree for now, there is no guarantee that he will keep his word once his man is ensconced in the Presidency. Why should Mr Sharif sit it out for five years and risk another general election? It would be in his interest to exploit the Presidency, destabilise Ms Bhutto and try to oust her as soon as possible.
If Ms Bhutto decides to go her own way, she will be looking at a person who fulfills three requirements — someone who is a Punjabi, who can rally round some sorely needed extra votes and who will rest content with cutting ribbons and hosting banquets. But this seems like an impossible task. Anyone who has the ability to dip into Mr Sharif’s camp or secure the support of the independents and the small regional or Islamic parties will surely be tempted to consolidate his constituency and become a hands-on President.
Nonetheless, many people think that Mr Balakh Sher Mazari is still Ms Bhutto’s best bet on this count. Mr Mazari is a polite, mild-mannered man without vaulting ambitions. He gets along well with her. On the basis of his personal goodwill he should also be able to pick up some extra votes. Unfortunately, Mr Mazari’s pushy sons and nephews are seen as a liability in circles otherwise sympathetic to him.
Ms Bhutto seems to be comfortable with Mr Hamid Nasir Chattha. But since handing over the Punjab to the PML-J she has been advised to think again of delivering another bastion of power to her new allies. After all, say PPP think-tankers, only interests, not friends, are permanent in politics.
Nawabzada Nasrullah’s candidature is said to pose unpredictable, even tricky questions. He has always been his own man and is unlikely to become Ms Bhutto’s appendage even in the most agreeable of circumstances. Mr Asghar Khan and Mr Yahya Bakhtiar have burnt their boats with the PPP, so they are unlikely to be given any second thoughts. Mr Ghulam Ishaq Khan may not yet be a spent force but he is definitely discredited in the eyes of the public. If Ms Bhutto were to risk endorsing the ex-President, Mr Sharif would most certainly exploit her decision. She might therefore be advised to give Mr Khan a miss, especially since she says she wants to start her second stint as prime minister on a clean slate. Malik Qasim, however, could turn out to be the PPP’s dark horse. But can he persuade Mazari, Nasrullah, Bugti, Asghar Khan and other small heavyweights to lend him their shoulders?
For Mian Nawaz Sharif, the choices are simpler. It is either Mr Wasim Sajjad or Mr Gohar Ayub. Both commend themselves by their ability to pick up extra votes, the former in the Senate and the latter on account of his Pathan grid. PML sources say Mr Sajjad is a better bet, though Mr Sharif is playing his cards close to his chest.
Mr Wasim Sajjad, it appears, has also opened lines of communication with Ms Bhutto so that he can become a “consensus candidate”. Although Mr Sajjad is a staunch PML man who is much enamoured of Mian Nawaz Sharif, there is some talk of a public accord between him and Ms Bhutto whereby he would publicly renounce the 8th amendment powers to hire and fire in exchange for her support. Whatever the net worth of such an accord in times of political crisis, and there are bound to be many such occasions ahead when the President could conceivably disagree with the PM, the fact remains that without the implicit approval of GHQ this proposal may not take off.
As for the khakis, they were still exploring when reports last came in. No doubt, they would have liked Mr Moeen Qureshi to shift to the Presidency but he wasn’t terribly keen on the idea. As a man of action with many ideas on good government, Mr Qureshi could hardly have relished the prospect of being a piece of furniture which is yanked out on ceremonial occasions. We don’t know if he will change his mind but nothing is beyond the realm of possibility if GHQ is seriously concerned.
Of course, it would be marvelous if a “consensus candidate” could be agreed upon between the PPP, PML and GHQ. But if that proves an elusive task, Ms Bhutto might sound out GHQ for its choice of the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Pakistan. After all, a consensus between two of the three power-bases in the country is better than no consensus at all.