The recent test launch of the Ghauri missile is quite significant. It carries a two-fold message for India: Pakistan means what it says –if New Delhi develops and deploys Pakistan-specific missile capabilities, Islamabad will respond with similar initiatives; if New Delhi upstages its nuclear programme, as the BJP government has threatened to do, Islamabad will follow suit. In both cases the onus of responsibility for taking the first steps in this controversial direction rests with India. The second part of the message is no less important — Pakistan will negotiate peace with India not from a position of apparent weakness but from a position of measured strength.
The timing of Ghauri is also important. It follows in the wake of two important developments in Indo-Pak relations. First, the much-trumpeted dialogue between the Gujral and Sharif governments launched last year has come to a halt because New Delhi has gone back on its word to include the Kashmir dispute in the agenda for the talks. Second, the BJP government’s belligerent statements on Kashmir and the nuclear question were contrived to tilt the balance of negotiating power in the peace talks in favour of India. Now Pakistan is saying that the peace talks must continue in an equitable manner, without any overt or covert threat being brandished by either side.
Mr Nawaz Sharif expects to be congratulated for this sound policy initiative even though everyone knows that GHQ was the formulating, motivating and implementing force behind this strategy. By so doing, however, Mr Sharif has redressed his original error of last year when he jumped into a superficial dialogue with India without doing any homework and without formulating a strategy for the talks. Now, at least, both sides know what’s what and there should be no false starts, dubious promises, unwarranted threats or unexpected hiccups.
That said, it is crucial that neither Mr Sharif nor Mr Vajpayee should try to exploit the new situation for purely party political domestic purposes in their respective countries. If Mr Vajpayee should succumb to the hawks in his administration and try to get some political mileage from Ghauri, we could be faced with an ominous arms race in the subcontinent. And if Mr Sharif were to assume that Ghauri will bail him out of his myriad economic and political problems at home, he is bound to be tragically mistaken. This is not a time to crow about military achievements. It is time for sober reflection, hard decisions and consistent action.
However, despite his “mandate” or possibly because of it, Mr Sharif has proven to be a most inept ruler. Much of last year was taken up with senseless confrontations and inexplicable insecurities. The economy, in the meanwhile, was left to flounder in a state of uncertainty and instability. This year has seen the unravelling of Mr Sharif’s opportunist political alliances and a deepening of the economic crisis. Where we go from here depends on how Mr Sharif tackles the three major interrelated crises facing his government.
The first, in order of priority, is law and order. It is horrific. Every day something happens somewhere (ethnic warfare in Karachi, sectarian strife in the Frontier or Punjab, terrorist bomb blasts here and there) which sends the stock market tumbling. But Mr Sharif does not appear to have a handle on this crisis. His special anti-terrorist courts have failed to deliver and the new elite commando police force is likely to meet the same fate.
The second is political stability. Despite neutralising the judiciary and presidency, Mr Sharif’s influence in the provinces has waned significantly. Balochistan and the NWFP are troubled. And it is only a matter of time before the PML’s alliance with the MQM falls apart and Governor’s Rule has to be imposed in Sindh.
The third is economic revival. Law and order and political stability are preconditions for economic growth and restructuring. Apart from these, however, the crisis comprises several other elements — raising tax revenues, curtailing wasteful expenditures, attracting foreign investment and instilling a sense of confidence and continuity in the local and foreign business community. But Mr Sharif’s track record on each score is dismal. Tax targets have not been met because the prime minister has failed to persuade or cajole the business and landed communities to cough up their share of dues to state and society. Mr Sharif also remains wedded to wasteful expenditures on vanity projects. And foreign investors are few and far between — they say that the new investment incentives are like putting the cart before the horse. The political and social climate must improve substantially before foreigners will put their money into Pakistan. Additionally, the government’s attempt to retract on sovereign guarantees to the Independent Power Projects has soured the climate and scared away potential foreign investors.
The root cause of this government’s troubles lies in Mr Sharif’s obsession with power. It is this tendency to concentrate power in his own hands and those of his cronies which precludes the formation of an able and merited team of professionals who can formulate consistent, top-grade policy and implement it without fear or favour. Therefore, as long as Mr Sharif stays, there will be a lot of sound and fury but nothing will get done. Indeed, the fear is that things could get much worse.