For some time now it has been abundantly clear that Mr Qaim Ali Shah has overstayed his welcome as CM Sindh. A mild, indecisive man who ran back and forth to Islamabad for ‘instructions’, Mr Shah was demonstrably out of his elements in the quicksand of Sindh.
Since things cannot possibly get worse in Sindh, a change of chief ministerial face, ceteris paribus, should nudge matters in the right direction. But the situation is much too complex and explosive to allow for the expectation of quick remedies, let alone small miracles, from Mr Altab Shabaan Mirani.
Mr Mirani, while bringing experience, integrity and the right family connections in Sindh, including loyalty to the Bhuttos, must be prepared to toss and turn in a bed of thorns. Amongst his first concerns should be concrete feelers for a dialogue with the MQM to effect a hiatus in the violence which has shattered the province.
Once breathing space has been established for communication, where Mr Shah failed Mr Mirani should fearlessly pick up the threads of the PPP-MQM accord signed a year ago and attempt to put it on the rails again after mutually agreed revisions to make it more reasonable and workable. But this must necessarily await a set of appropriate and long overdue signals from diverse sources to the prime minister in Islamabad.
President Ghulam Ishaq has indicated that the PPP government is not opposed to the idea of an APC or something like it in Sindh. Fine. But on the other side, a change of heart and fresh analysis is required of the MQM too. They cannot lend their shoulder to the COP’s obstreperous efforts to topple the PPP government in Islamabad and then expect the PPP to play footsie with them in Sindh.
That is the crux of the most recent antagonisms in Sindh. So long as the MQM is violently arrayed with the IJI against the PPP, the latter will understandably bristle with hostility and the province will remain perpetually volcanic. Put it another way. If the MQM-supported COP refuses to accept the legitimacy of the Bhutto government to stay its full elected term in office, we can reasonably forecast an aggressive PPP reaction in Punjab and Sindh to the respective machinations of Mian Sahib and Altaf Bhai.
In that sense, Sindh is not another country crying out for a separate resolution. At the national level, actually, the solution is staring us in the face. If the COP hounds could be called off the PPP’s back in Islamabad with secure assurances that there will he no foul play in future, Ms Bhutto would assuredly be more receptive to the idea of reining in the lion of the Punjab, Mr Khar, from growling at Mian Sahib, as well as encouraging Mr Mirani to negotiate a fair deal with Altaf Bhai by checking the reactive anti-MQM militancy in his own PPP ranks.
On its part, the MQM needs to reassess its political strategy. There is no getting away from the fact that its natural and long-term ally in Sindh is the PPP which legitimately governs the province. The IJI amounts for little in the province, especially after the MQM has roped in the vote bank of the Jamaat-i-Islami and JUP in Karachi and Hyderabad. Nor should the MQM base its tactics on its fearsome ability to cripple Karachi and hold the rest of Pakistan to ransom — the backlash from Punjab and the NWFP, which is developing inevitably, will do irrevocable harm even to those of its claims which are reasonably fair. But as a first step, the MQM must urgently disavow its absurd ultimatum to be recognised as a ‘fifth nationality’ in Pakistan.