If it’s lonely at the top, as General Pervez Musharraf claims, it’s certainly not evident in his demeanour. The general is bristling with overconfidence. The politicians have no credibility, he thunders, hence they have no right to hold public meetings. The IMF and World Bank are on board, he asserts, hence everything’s chummy with the donor community. Traders and businessmen have forked over an additional Rs 50 billion in taxes this year, he argues, hence everything is going to be hunky dory with the economy. The local elections are whistling through, he chuckles, hence it’s time to start thinking of ascending the presidency. The supreme court is in a cooperative mood, he grins, hence any number of constitutional amendments can be made. The dictatorial regimes in Burma and Egypt which recently laid out the red carpet for him are alive and kicking, he shrugs, hence his own longevity is assured. The foreign minister has been invited to meet the top dogs of the Bush administration in Washington, he clarifies, hence sanctions are on their way out. The Taliban are giving Tajik commander Ahmad Shah Masood a good thrashing, he notes, hence the European Union which invited Masood to Brussels recently can go jump in a lake. The jihadis are making India pay through its nose in Kashmir, he boasts, hence the national security strategy is clicking. Finally, praise be to Allah who moves in mysterious and unexpected ways, Washington and Beijing are trading threats, he submits, hence Pakistan may receive some Chinese windfalls in the bargain.
But before General Musharraf clicks his heels and dances a jig of joy, he might pause to consider the flip side of the coin. The politicians may be down but they are not out, which is why the regime is scared of allowing them to kick up a dust storm. The IMF and World Bank are fickle mistresses, now you see them, now you don’t, depending on their master’s voice in Washington. America has decided to cosy up to India, thus if push comes to shove, it could start brandishing the stick to Pakistan all over again. Traders and businessmen are mad as hell, so instead of investing in the country they would rather take their money and run. The economy is growing, to be sure, but it’s far below target. The local nazims are lining up to elect a president, but the self-same philosophy may induce them to leave a sinking ship like rats. The Taliban’s military victories provide illusory strategic depth to Islamabad, but one false move by Osama Bin Laden could provoke the wrath of the big boy in the White House and make Afghanistan a millstone around our necks. The Indians may not know whether they’re coming or going, but when they tire of Pakistani pricking they might just become desperate enough to pick up the gauntlet and hurl it in our face.
Finally, there is not much comfort to be drawn from the experience of the military dictators in Burma or from the autocratic president of Egypt. Burma is not teetering on the brink of financial default and is not dependent on international goodwill for economic survival. Nor is it at odds with either Washington on the issue of nuclear proliferation and Islamic terrorism or any powerful neighbour over a hotly disputed slice of history. Likewise, General Musharraf isn’t a patch on President Hosni Mubarak. Where the latter is the most virile, anti-fundo American ally in the Middle-East, the former is wont to flirt with the fundos and is not averse to blackmailing the West (Apres moi, le deluge!).
In other words, General Musharraf is safe and sound until he trips up or someone throws a spanner in his works. That is not a matter of if but when, since there are so many angry people and disgruntled states around and the general is seeking nothing less than a total transformation of political life according to his own worldview. When that happens, all his wistful dreams will become recurring nightmares and it will get terribly lonely at the bottom of the well.
There is, of course, one way in which PM can ward off the odds stacked against him. That is by stripping the state of its misplaced concept of national security. In the modern age, national security is not built around notions of extracting pounds of flesh by war or jihad. It is constructed around historical compromises with neighbours east and west so that the peace dividend is used to enhance the welfare of all the citizens of a state. Security doesn’t flow from squeezing growth in order to reduce the fiscal deficit or from pushing human talent and capital out of the country. It springs from a high savings and investment rate in the country. It cannot be protected by controlling dissent because it is critically dependent on a democratic consensus based on free association and will. It cannot be achieved by institutionalising passionate faith because it is primarily predicated on the innocuous self-interest of people. Anyone who thinks or believes otherwise is deceiving himself.