Who is the most popular politician in the country? Nine out of ten people will probably say “Benazir Bhutto”, even as most will remind you that she is corrupt and incompetent. That is to say that most of the nine wouldn’t actually vote for her, with some absenting themselves from the polls as usual and others voting against her on some principle or the other. Ask them about Nawaz Sharif and they are likely to shrug contemptuously, “He’s finished”, implying that not only is he corrupt but also out of the political reckoning, hence not worth commenting upon. Talk about Pervez Musharraf and the remarks are likely to be as diverse as the class composition of the sample polled. “At least he’s anti-fundo” (professional types); “He’s not corrupt” (urban middle-classes), “He’s a survivor” (retired army officers); “What’s he ever done for us?” (working classes); “He’s the devil in disguise” (mullahs); “He’s got the wrong team” (big business); “He’s got it in for us” (traders) – none of which is exactly a good barometer for domestic popularity. How does all this translate into practical politics in the months ahead?
There are some people who want General Musharraf to postpone the general elections and rule without the politicians. But their arguments are either self-serving (“The politicians are corrupt and incompetent”) or misplaced (“The country cannot afford democracy at this critical juncture”). Fortunately, all accounts so far suggest that General Musharraf intends to keep his word and elections will be held before the year is out. What is less clear is how democratic, free and fair these will be in the prevailing circumstances and who will be allowed or banned from participating in them and how power will be shared between the army and the politicians.
It is clear that General Musharraf means to sit in the driving seat. The constitution is to be amended for this purpose. We shall see a super presidential National Security Council lording it over the prime minister and his cabinet. A degree of proportional representation may be decreed along with an enhancement of the seats in parliament so that no party can whip up a majority; apart from the power to confirm a prime minister, the president may also demand the right to nominate members of the cabinet; and so on. But all these calculations would amount to nought if a popular but corrupt politician like Benazir Bhutto were to sweep the polls and refuse to play ball with General Musharraf. So, for starters, she has to be kept out of the game and her Pakistan Peoples Party is to be isolated and divided so that it cannot muster the strength to upset General Musharraf’s apple cart. How is this to be done?
Recent political maneuverings are a sign of things to come. The PPP is now in the anti-Musharraf Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy, now out of it, depending upon its state of negotiations with the government. General Musharraf has a straight-forward formula: Bhutto is corrupt and incompetent; she was prime minister twice and didn’t mend her ways; hence she doesn’t deserve a third chance. If the constitution has to be amended to keep Bhutto and Sharif out, it will be done by decreeing that no one can be elected or become prime minister three times in a row; but since the PPP is a valid enough national party, it will be accommodated in Islamabad and wherever else it deserves, depending upon how many votes it has managed to pull. In the meanwhile, the government will do whatever is needed to ensure that the PPP is kept in its place. This will be done by stringing an anti-PPP coalition made of PPP renegades (Aftab Ahmed Sherpao, etc), PML-N renegades (Mian Azhar et al), Pashtun and Baloch opportunists (Begum Nasim Wali Khan, Akbar Bugti, etc), and perhaps even the MQM if it is ready to accept terms and behave itself. And if, despite everything, the Bhutto factor still seems to threaten General Musharraf’s blueprint, then the elections will be rigged selectively to guarantee “positive” results.
Isn’t all this familiar? Did we not see the same sort of strategy in 1990 when President Ghulam Ishaq and General Aslam Beg contrived to thrust Nawaz Sharif and Jam Sadiq Ali on Islamabad and Sindh respectively and had to follow it up with the most disgraceful politicking to keep the PPP at bay? Nor should it be forgotten that puppets have a habit of pouncing on their string pullers with devastating effect – Junejo on Zia, Nawaz on Ishaq, Leghari on Bhutto, Osama on the CIA, Bhindranwalle on Gandhi, etc. It is far better to make realistic compromises and rule as democratically as possible. That is why Ms Bhutto should be given a personal face-saving exit from office while enabling the PPP to make a deserving institutional entry into power. We have bitter experience of rigging and no establishment has ever prospered by such tactics.
Together, General Musharraf and the PPP can walk the straight and narrow as prescribed by the modern world and construct a new Pakistan. Separately, they are bound to flounder.