The nomination of Shaukat Aziz as prime minister is controversial. Some people are happy, others are put off, most are simply evincing cynicism or opportunism.
The business elites are generally pro-Mr Aziz even though the small traders and shopkeepers are more sarcastic than supportive. The international community should appreciate one of its own ilk compared to the clueless Mr Jamali or the embarrassingly uniformed General Musharraf. So too should most middle-class Pakistani expatriates. They remain more concerned about the positive personal image that Pakistan’s leaders present before the foreign community of their employ rather than their institutional or democratic or representative credentials in their country of origin. But nationalists and Islamists of all hue are outraged by the military establishment’s most recent foreign ‘import’ just as much as democrats and civil society representatives are stung by the fact that the establishment could not find a single party political representative from among all the members of the national assembly.
General Pervez Musharraf, we believe, is not exactly brimming with self-satisfaction at the recent turn of events. True, Mr Aziz is not likely to carve a political role or base for himself that might conceivably unnerve his ‘boss’, like Mr Zarfaullah Jamali did when he tried to dilute the NSC or claim a stake in the Muslim League. Nor is Mr Aziz inclined to be suicidal. He does not have, like Mr Jamali, any political background or constituency to nurture. But let’s be clear about another thing. Mr Aziz is not General Musharraf’s original or first choice. If he had been, he would have been given a winning Muslim League ticket for the National Assembly and nominated as PM instead of Mr Jamali right after the elections. Indeed, he is probably not even General Musharraf’s fall-back prime minister. If he had been, he would have at least been elected to the assembly in the first place rather than relegated to the senate.
No. Mr Aziz’s unexpected nomination implies only that General Musharraf has recently about-turned on his original political strategy for prolonging his rule in Pakistan. The original strategy envisaged a vibrant local government base controlled by his provincial, non-political Governors coupled with a pliant federal parliament dominated by him as President. It was in that representative but controlled environment that Mr Jamali, a weak politician, was chosen to do the President’s bidding so that a ‘functioning democracy’ could be showcased to the world at large. It was also in the same context that General Musharraf was persuaded to doff his uniform once his strategy had started to yield dividends.
But things have gone awry for General Musharraf. His non-party local government system has become entangled with his party political provincial dispensation and been cut down to size, especially in Sindh. More significantly, the federal parliament and two provincial ones are more unruly and obstreperous than he might have expected. Certainly, his preferred first choice of opposition, the MMA, has proved more daunting than the Pakistan Peoples Party, as is evident from the hard time the mullahs have given him on diverse issues such as the LFO, NSC, Pakistan’s alliance with Washington, Islamic immoderation, etc.
Faced with such obstacles, General Musharraf has shifted into lower political gear (hence Mr Aziz) and is clinging to his uniform once again. It is a measure of his singular lack of confidence in his own political dispensation that he cannot trust his own Pakistan Muslim League to provide the required prime minister and he is afraid of his own army and so cannot take off his uniform. It may be noted in parenthesis that when Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain called a meeting of the parliamentarians of the PML to solicit two safe seats for Mr Aziz, the MNA from Bhakkar stood up and flatly refused to make way for him; another quipped that Mr Aziz should be allotted one of the reserved seats for women (desk thumping) and a third suggested that he should be sent to fight from Wana (catcalls and applause).
Finally, the selection of Mr Shaukat Aziz as prime minister rather than a politician-cum-professional like Humayun Akhtar Khan or Dr Hafeez Sheikh or Mohammadmian Soomro, implies a serious rift in the Musharraf camp. On one side are those who advised him to take the path of the referendum, spurn the PPP, embrace the MMA and seek a non-political prime minister. They are now asking him not to take off his uniform. On the other side are those who advised him against the referendum, who don’t like the mullahs, who want to enlarge and institutionalize the democratic and representative space available in the country and who therefore want him to take off his uniform and consolidate his position as a civilian president. In time to come, this rift may entail some casualties in General Musharraf’s inner cabal which will have a bearing not only on the route he takes subsequently but also on Mr Aziz’s future role in it.
Meanwhile, Mr Aziz should buckle his seat belt for the ride of his life. Mock humility and good PR skills are not likely to be a sufficient substitute for sharp political maneuvering and cunning manipulation born of years in the doghouse of ‘representative’ politics.