Last week was extraordinary, even by Pakistani standards.
The Supreme Court reacted dramatically to a rumour, denied swiftly and vigourously by the government, on October 15, and issued a statement at midnight warning the Zardari government from any unconstitutional sacking of the judges of the apex court. The next morning, it adjudged that Article 6 of the constitution (High Treason) would be applicable if the government did not heed its advice. The following day, after the prime minister went on air to deny that he had ever hatched any such conspiracy, the SC indefinitely adjourned its suo motu proceedings in the matter while ordering all state institutions, especially the army, to be ready to obey its command under articles 189 and 190 of the constitution, the latter requiring them to come to its aid if so required.
As the midnight drama unfolded in Islamabad, Karachi was engulfed by wave upon wave of target killings. At last count, over 70 people had lost their lives in gang warfare, ethnic strife and political vendettas. Tempers were hot and nerves frayed everywhere. The Governor of Sindh, Ishratul Abad, was pressurized by hotheads in the MQM to resign. Fortunately, however, Mr Altaf Hussain stayed his hand and has given the government a “last chance” to salvage the situation.
To add fuel to the fire, Mr Nawaz Sharif took up cudgels against Mr Asif Zardari, blaming him for everything under the sun and demanding regime change “sooner than later”. This added grist to the rumour mills that all three developments were somehow interlinked with a countdown on the regime.
Before that happens, though, it is worth deliberating on the behaviour of the SC and the solution to Karachi’s continuing woes.
The judges drove to the SC building at night on October 15 in a convoy to protest and also show unity. This is unprecedented. They huddled in the dead of night and acted on the basis of a rumour that was constantly denied by the government. This is unprecedented. They ordered the government to investigate the matter rather then calling the media that aired the rumour to explain its conduct. This is unprecedented. They chose to ignore the fact that even if the government had withdrawn the executive order restoring the pre November 3, 2007, SC judges, only three judges from the current bench would have been adversely affected. The remaining 14 judges could have denounced the move on the basis of the very legal arguments advanced by the court subsequently and restored their colleagues in the blinking of an eye. This has led to conspiracy theories that the judges’ dramatic behaviour and desperate actions have critically served to bind the judges and lawyers together on the eve of two significant events: a judgment on the fate of the 18th amendment on October 21 in which demonstration of unanimity rather than dissent will be important, and an election to the Supreme Court Bar Association next week in which pro-SC versus independent lawyers groups are pitted.
The Karachi killings have severely split the stakeholders in this churning cauldron. PPP leaders are asking for the army or Rangers to clean up the mess in an efficient and bipartisan manner. The MQM doesn’t like this because of memories of the army and paramilitary actions against its activists in the 1990s. Instead, the MQM is asking for nothing less than the sacking of the home minister, Zulfikar Mirza, and the handing over of the city, including its law and order apparatus, to it. This is a continuation of its persistent demand that local elections should be held – which it is sure to sweep – and police and budgetary resources put at its disposal. Given the fact of gerrymandering of townships in the past when the MQM was in bed with General Pervez Musharraf, the MQM has an edge over every other community, especially the Pakhtuns who comprise nearly 30 per cent of the population. So, fresh local elections without resolving the issue of fair representation and demarcation will only exacerbate the sense of inequality and injustice that lies at the root of the ethnic conflict in the city. Alternatively, an army operation is sure to provoke the MQM into quitting the coalition and destablising the government in Islamabad.
This brings us full circle to the beginning. There seems to be no “solution” to deadlock between the government and judiciary on the question of President Zardari’s immunity from prosecution. The crunch will come if and when the SC orders the army to drag the PM to court or compel him to obey the court’s orders. If the army obeys the court instead of the legally elected government as enjoined by the constitution, it will be nothing short of an unprecedented “judicial coup”. If it defers to the government, the SC will have egg on its face and be stripped of all legitimacy.
The only sane course is for both the SC and Zardari government to step back from the brink, take a deep breath each, and survey their declining credibility graphs. The masses are alienated from the courts for denying them quick justice and from the government for pushing them over the poverty line